Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0953ee89f2826a8c520e0e9ba0637073764d12b415794b7e9170c10da71371f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 9c | 719.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 12c | 522.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 461.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.66 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 7c | 294.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.79 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 166$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 43c | 164.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 10c | 161.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.25 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 159.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 28c | 144.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…1867backed No | 79c | 133.08$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 18c | 112.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 86.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 85.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 49c | 77.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 68.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 61c | 59.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 79c | 57.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…306cbacked Yes | 78c | 55.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 53.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 52.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 69c | 44.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa1…b91bbacked Yes | 77c | 39.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 61c | 32.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 69c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 61c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.