Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe968424a056e56754d7bc45009b2d0a4c9bd648be27080f888f5b9604c49b4ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 25c | 421.87$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 303.69$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 61c | 288.69$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.66 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed No | 76c | 245.08$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 232.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 209.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 20c | 199.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 21c | 172.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 142.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 79c | 141.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.91 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 24c | 126$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 35c | 124.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 118.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 22c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 27c | 112.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 27c | 102.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 50c | 93.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 89.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 21c | 89.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 56c | 89.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 28c | 79.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 77.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 76.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked No | 41c | 72.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 70.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 58c | 67.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 22c | 62.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 31c | 61.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 59c | 55.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 24c | 54.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 69c | 51.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 80c | 49.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 31c | 48.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 47.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 45c | 44.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 41.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 40.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 62c | 38.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 78c | 36.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 75c | 30.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 42c | 27.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 25.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 55c | 19.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.