Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f8bddad85712e2b46756f71c753380a1417bec8049e4a45742e5182c3a5c015
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,272,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,303,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,272,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 488 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8cb…53d5backed Yes | 23c | 67,016$15,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,140.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No | 80c | 46,578$37,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,534.72 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 19c | 43,691$8,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,106.74 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…21cbbacked Yes | 22c | 35,669$7,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,916.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 12c | 29,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.99 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 18,951$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.09 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…4733backed Yes | 8c | 15,500$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 14,323$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 17c | 14,200$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 10c | 13,952$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.66 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 14c | 12,428$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.82 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,417$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf7…0724backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 78c | 9,119$7,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.31 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 11c | 8,891$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b4…4d48backed Yes | 11c | 8,470$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 19c | 7,324$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.34 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 3c | 7,318$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 75c | 7,010$5,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.93 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 13c | 6,884$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.01 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…2e3ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,832$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 6,541$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.16 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b3…7552backed Yes | 10c | 6,286$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +484.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 9c | 6,013$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.47 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…edbebacked Yes | 7c | 5,800$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 19c | 5,685$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.02 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…6babbacked Yes | 2c | 5,561$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd74a…bd70backed Yes | 16c | 5,004$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 76c | 4,913$3,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.03 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…ac90backed Yes | 7c | 4,508$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 77c | 4,463$3,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.88 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 7c | 4,446$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.65 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…356cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,431$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 12c | 4,322$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.86 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…0988backed Yes | 1c | 4,274$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 4,266$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…8ae9backed Yes | 1c | 4,083$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…a0aebacked Yes | 2c | 4,043$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…80bbbacked Yes | 18c | 3,612$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +347.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 3,364$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 30c | 3,363$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 11c | 3,350$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.36 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 17c | 3,326$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.59 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9a…6025backed Yes | 9c | 3,086$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…bb35backed Yes | 23c | 3,039$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,984$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,895$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…b1d8backed Yes | 24c | 2,871$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +101%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 3c | 2,795$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 12c | 2,726$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 12c | 2,674$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.49 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 16c | 2,597$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.09 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked No | 80c | 2,547$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 18c | 2,504$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.89 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…f60cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,489$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 2c | 2,368$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…e98bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,328$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 78c | 2,300$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…a746backed No | 78c | 2,237$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.85 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,237$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed Yes | 17c | 2,202$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…9823backed Yes | 14c | 2,200$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…94b9backed Yes | 16c | 2,171$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 15c | 2,132$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.77 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…8df7backed Yes | 11c | 2,080$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…014bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,068$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 79c | 2,046$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.87 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 13c | 1,996$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.32 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…3188backed Yes | 31c | 1,940$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…fd80backed Yes | 16c | 1,920$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…5529backed Yes | 12c | 1,817$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.92 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…4486backed Yes | 11c | 1,800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -6.3wins | -0.37per pick | 61cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4c02…7486backed Yes | 13c | 1,800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a2…6b79backed Yes | 13c | 1,794$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…f1efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,728$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…df3fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,706$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,623$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…aa56backed Yes | 26c | 1,509$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc725…34e7backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…6a27backed Yes | 15c | 1,490$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9863…5445backed Yes | 27c | 1,480$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 25cpaid | +379.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…70c7backed Yes | 13c | 1,451$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.66 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf895…02a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 1,450$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 19c | 1,444$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.05 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 25c | 1,430$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.07 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed No | 72c | 1,384$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.91 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 1c | 1,373$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,366$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.54 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 9c | 1,355$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.74 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…9ceabacked No | 76c | 1,351$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…7891backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…7b78backed Yes | 26c | 1,297$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf93…2c46backed Yes | 8c | 1,291$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…65c8backed Yes | 25c | 1,284$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…22a1backed No | 76c | 1,251$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.57 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.