Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd27666ad05dbe8ac5547e79d634fc306578b60b71f96ab4347f020b46e9413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,903,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,663,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,903,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 14c | 77,095$11,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,043.59 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 13c | 37,268$5,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,005.27 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x478c…a645backed Yes | 7c | 35,261$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…2988backed Yes | 12c | 25,481$3,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,147.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 11c | 24,394$2,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.6 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…45c4backed Yes | 5c | 23,730$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 10c | 23,507$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,403.51 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 17c | 23,107$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 21,069$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.2 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 16c | 18,804$3,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,061.67 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 1c | 17,703$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 56c | 16,158$9,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,051.93 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 57c | 16,096$9,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,889.49 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 7c | 16,062$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.21 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1718backed Yes | 1c | 15,525$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…916ebacked Yes | 6c | 14,832$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 17c | 14,642$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532.27 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 13,622$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.27 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 19c | 12,500$2,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,344.12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 6c | 10,758$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.92 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 57c | 10,549$6,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,506.08 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 78c | 10,519$8,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.4 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 3c | 10,335$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.26 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd9…2835backed Yes | 1c | 10,324$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 12c | 10,222$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.2 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,051$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.37 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…9fd4backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…c2bfbacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef7…9ae8backed Yes | 4c | 9,860$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.94 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…2e3ebacked Yes | 22c | 8,949$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 64c | 8,920$5,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,196.75 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 8,586$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.46 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 21c | 8,557$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.61 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 31c | 8,321$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,602.14 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 22c | 7,969$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.13 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 12c | 7,556$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.45 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 52c | 7,498$3,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,931.92 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 23c | 7,094$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.62 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes | 1c | 6,876$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -96.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 6,710$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.19 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes | 12c | 6,709$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.23 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes | 9c | 6,510$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.98 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 60c | 6,139$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,468.91 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 4c | 5,925$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.6 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…3479backed Yes | 51c | 5,870$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 7c | 5,454$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 17c | 5,254$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.53 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 38c | 5,204$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…28f8backed Yes | 53c | 5,122$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa503…2342backed Yes | 50c | 5,071$2,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,529.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 14c | 5,008$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.26 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +555.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…0f24backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 14c | 4,888$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.41 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 45c | 4,823$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.11 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…21e8backed Yes | 2c | 4,796$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked Yes | 13c | 4,747$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.13 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…5bc6backed Yes | 9c | 4,736$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 10c | 4,389$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.57 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 6c | 4,382$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 11c | 4,216$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.76 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d5…b8c0backed Yes | 7c | 4,182$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 67c | 4,100$2,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 3c | 3,969$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed No | 52c | 3,830$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 3,667$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…a8c0backed Yes | 14c | 3,548$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a81…a925backed Yes | 7c | 3,475$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.41 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5981backed Yes | 4c | 3,445$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.29 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 21c | 3,425$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.62 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…8711backed Yes | 0c | 3,376$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes | 15c | 3,368$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…e090backed Yes | 49c | 3,326$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.93 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 48c | 3,309$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 49c | 3,258$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.54 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 13c | 3,145$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.57 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…21cbbacked Yes | 34c | 3,127$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.03 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…6e70backed Yes | 26c | 3,100$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.19 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…c0efbacked Yes | 8c | 3,097$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +276%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…6babbacked Yes | 10c | 3,064$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 5c | 3,050$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.25 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…5793backed Yes | 38c | 2,997$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 2c | 2,921$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…8cecbacked Yes | 31c | 2,866$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 14c | 2,827$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.23 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9a38backed Yes | 9c | 2,804$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41f…b397backed Yes | 48c | 2,790$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…5f8ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,759$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 49c | 2,706$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.78 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…405cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,636$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…a397backed Yes | 9c | 2,627$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 10c | 2,516$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,510$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…bb66backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.77 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes | 12c | 2,423$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes | 4c | 2,339$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581c…d9dabacked Yes | 2c | 2,335$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,280$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.72 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…2fc6backed Yes | 8c | 2,217$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.65 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.