TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6fba…26dc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
446
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: WNBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category WNBA at 56 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLBlast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT23152.8%122 W · 109 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 231 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)backed Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)backed Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)backed Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,974Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,973.71
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$188
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$77.5
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,040
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$200
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.76
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athleticsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.5
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+107.6%+$595
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$117.5
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$117.5
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.05
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$130
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$176.12
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Athletics vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,596Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,596.3
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,504Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,503.84
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$331.1
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$499.59
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$161
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.65
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.98
Showing 25 of 231 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT9361.3%57 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 93 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$3,181Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,181.3
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$441Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$440.74
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$606.51
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,306Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$2,224.53
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.92
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,002Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$668
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$851.46
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.9
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$611.05
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$586.98
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$671Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$361.13
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$264
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,108Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+46.1%+$510.41
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+203%+$536
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$640
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$772.48
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.13
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,657Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$1,151.75
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$488.59
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$4,778Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,777.74
Trail Blazers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$534Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$533.56
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,914Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$929.4
Heat vs. Hornets: 1H Moneylinebacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.23
Pelicans vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$182.54
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,188Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$576.32
Showing 25 of 93 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT3262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Jamey-Lyn Horth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$313.09
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jirí Procházka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$495Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$495.01
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Azamat Murzakanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.58
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Curtis Blaydes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$485
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mateusz Gamrot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$266.45
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)backed Tatiana Suarez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$575Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$399.91
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Ethyn Ewing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$321Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$262.71
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Chris Duncan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$267.58
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)backed Virna Jandiroba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$414.17
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Jose Delano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$27.53
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Guilherme Pat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.85
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Alice Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$69.08
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Melissa Gatto · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.5
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Dakota Hope · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.41
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Joe Pyfer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$127.27
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Alexa Grasso · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$34.05
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Julian Erosa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Yousri Belgaroui · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$26.51
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Terrance McKinney · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Tyrell Fortune · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$81.82
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Jose Miguel Delgado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.29
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Oumar Sy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Myktybek Orolbai · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$15.79
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Charles Johnson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
UFC Fight Night: SuYoung You vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Elijah Smith · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick61cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$6,641Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$2,333.19
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$80
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,070.3
Stanford Cardinal vs. West Virginia Mountaineersbacked Stanford Cardinal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
New Mexico Lobos vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricanebacked New Mexico Lobos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.15
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.71
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.56
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$44.61
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$17.36
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.58
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.57
Cornell Big Red vs. Yale Bulldogsbacked Yale Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+48.8%+$24.23
All 13 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stars vs. Maple Leafsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$140
Wild vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$121.6
Red Wings vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$112
Sharks vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$203
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$120
Rangers vs. Panthersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$236
Bruins vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.99
Hurricanes vs. Blackhawksbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
Blues vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Flyers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$72
All 11 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
WNBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$183.54
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$234.36
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercurybacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$333.2
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Libertybacked New York Liberty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$99
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Skybacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$117
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$255.3
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Las Vegas Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$303.47
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFirebacked PortlandFire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$141.12
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Libertybacked New York Liberty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$175.17
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$248
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,463Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$720.53
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Jaqueline Cristianbacked Sarah Rakotomanga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.08
BMW Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$144
Santa Cruz: Juan Estevez vs Juan Manuel La Sernabacked Juan Manuel La Serna · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$409.92
Santa Cruz: Eric Vanshelboim vs Santiago Rodriguez Tavernabacked Santiago Rodriguez Taverna · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$99
Barcelona Open: Jaume Munar vs Rafael Jodarbacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$488Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$199.47
Oeiras 3: Gastao Elias vs Joel Schwaerzlerbacked Joel Schwaerzler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$58
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Donna Vekic vs Karolina Pliskovabacked Donna Vekic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$27.53
Sarasota: Hugo Dellien vs Darwin Blanchbacked Darwin Blanch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+25%+$17.35
All 9 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Bbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.01
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Bbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$150
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.31
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked RED Canids · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$163.77
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Bbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$539Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$151.97
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Bbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$68.53
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$154
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffsbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$44.73
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Torino FC vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$27.53
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+37%+$21.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$174
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$46.34
All 2 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royalsbacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.98
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalorebacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$15.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$43.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+77.4%+$154.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$40.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Panathinaikosbacked Panathinaikos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$248
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.