TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Rangers vs. Panthers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Panthersof Rangers, Panthers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,222,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,224,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,222,854 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 743 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1925…4654backed Panthers42c238,500$100,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,029.7211644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Rangers59c115,000$67,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,549.986352.4%33 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Rangers52c114,818$59,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,684.7967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Panthers48c110,000$52,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Rangers58c61,330$35,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,571.4448545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Rangers58c57,659$33,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,442.1615054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Panthers46c54,000$24,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,1608952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Panthers41c51,685$21,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,494.951550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Panthers48c50,000$24,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,0002161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Panthers44c31,259$13,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,537.2961950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb790…0dc1backed Rangers0c20,654$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Rangers57c20,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,4003056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rangers59c18,042$10,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,724.0840356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Rangers58c18,000$10,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,4403046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Rangers58c17,094$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.513056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Panthers44c11,642$5,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,490.991,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Rangers59c11,550$6,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,814.515949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2bf…0b30backed Panthers48c10,823$5,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,628.121353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Panthers45c10,013$4,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,499.3312654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Panthers42c10,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,80041842.8%179 W · 239 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1c…b3abbacked Panthers46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Panthers42c9,000$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1805756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Panthers48c8,914$4,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,664.3427448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Rangers58c8,810$5,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,109.9732151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e96…1513backed Rangers58c8,430$4,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,889.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Panthers45c8,143$3,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,455.879038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Panthers46c8,092$3,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,369.6812047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Panthers42c8,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6401,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Rangers58c7,400$4,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2924555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Panthers45c7,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,849.9527850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed Panthers46c6,921$3,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,737.331735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40d1…8ecabacked Rangers57c6,517$3,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,714.69742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0e…718cbacked Rangers57c6,154$3,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,507.641050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Panthers44c6,110$2,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,410.489249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Panthers46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2408854.5%48 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa574…28dcbacked Panthers47c6,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1801553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Panthers54c5,760$3,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.7810938.5%42 W · 67 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Panthers58c5,685$3,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,384.012,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e3…d750backed Panthers46c5,458$2,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.321942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Panthers46c5,298$2,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,860.833647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c94…5939backed Panthers42c5,172$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4743…fd53backed Rangers57c5,087$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.5950%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Rangers40c5,000$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9978657%49 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Rangers56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Panthers45c5,000$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.9843548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca5e…4af1backed Panthers44c4,831$2,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,705.361250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Rangers47c4,709$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.229146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f6…c6e0backed Rangers57c4,665$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e7…68d2backed Panthers44c4,625$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5901533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cd3…d98bbacked Panthers42c4,616$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Rangers36c4,560$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.5218452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Panthers44c4,415$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.417247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Rangers25c4,323$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.7930259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Rangers20c4,267$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86031828.3%90 W · 228 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Panthers48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.678946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rangers52c4,162$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,184.251,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Rangers56c4,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Rangers48c3,991$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.431,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed Panthers53c3,990$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.31957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Panthers45c3,821$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.291656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x536f…6898backed Panthers43c3,800$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,165.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Panthers45c3,760$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,06813850.7%70 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0aae…5efabacked Panthers44c3,720$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3201…6634backed Panthers75c3,667$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Panthers47c3,526$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.3260249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Panthers40c3,481$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,088.5847951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Rangers59c3,333$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.4731550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Rangers46c3,240$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.44450%22 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e59…307dbacked Panthers64c3,125$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1251662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Rangers40c3,101$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.9436948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Panthers42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.0111153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Rangers58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Panthers42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,74025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Rangers58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Panthers78c2,893$2,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.912,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Panthers49c2,645$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.813,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Rangers58c2,584$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4997755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Panthers44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4004450%22 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Panthers80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50058467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Panthers42c2,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45031848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Panthers42c2,461$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.61,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Rangers58c2,444$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.5459450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Panthers56c2,403$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.812,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Panthers45c2,076$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.821,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed Panthers47c2,020$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.61353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Rangers58c2,002$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.166256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Panthers43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.117652.6%40 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85e5…9343backed Panthers45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.012050%10 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2814…2941backed Panthers46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+52.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Rangers26c1,923$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008748.3%42 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Rangers58c1,900$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10261959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Panthers47c1,866$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.749751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Rangers58c1,856$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.6166552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Rangers39c1,854$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.9922043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x463e…fa8ebacked Panthers44c1,835$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Rangers53c1,825$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.9314946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Rangers46c1,825$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.8613850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Panthers45c1,799$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.4941354.5%225 W · 188 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3da…843cbacked Panthers44c1,779$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb43e…78bfbacked Rangers59c1,700$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.251050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.