TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,162 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x815f…1eefbacked Under66c2,022$1,335 inLost-$1,334.7591252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over35c2,009$696 inWon+$1,313.18,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under67c447.75$300 inLost-$299.992,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Under77c430$331 inLost-$331.189053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fba…26dcbacked Over23c430$99 inWon+$331.123152.8%122 W · 109 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Under5c258.48$14 inLost-$13.794829.2%14 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over72c195$140 inWon+$54.95,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under56c173.26$97 inLost-$97.0390446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71bc…7fe4backed Under76c131.58$100 inLost-$1002532%8 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Over24c106.67$26 inWon+$81.051,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over74c96.64$71 inWon+$25.443,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over33c93.59$31 inWon+$62.7612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over25c74.72$19 inWon+$56.0467444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over40c61.98$25 inWon+$36.979,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5569…c927backed Under78c51.82$40 inLost-$40.2212858.6%75 W · 53 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under64c41.55$27 inLost-$26.786,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under77c35$27 inLost-$26.955,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1788…aa80backed Over71c28.17$20 inWon+$8.173265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under49c25.51$12 inLost-$12.398,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x030f…1ff6backed Under76c23.68$18 inLost-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick74cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Under77c21.94$17 inLost-$16.8921852.8%115 W · 103 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under77c21.66$17 inLost-$16.681,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c6…eeb6backed Under74c17.94$13 inLost-$13.2315942.8%68 W · 91 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over75c16.46$12 inWon+$4.1163954.5%348 W · 291 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.