MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb919fc7d83b668e08b65b10c283b6637585223bf0f29d6c1fb43ac53f017f291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 6,408$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780.81 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 2,474$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.5 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 1,243$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.21 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 1,144$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.92 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 1,076$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.1 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 694.62$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.17 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Kansas City Royals | 78c | 641.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.09 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 77c | 568.09$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 501$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.59 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 492$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.1 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 478$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.02 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 449.01$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.9 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 400$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.43 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 370.88$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 361.77$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.42 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 327.35$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 303.65$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.45 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 286.28$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.73 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 250$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 198.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 189.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 160.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 133.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 75c | 119$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 110.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 61.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 60.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Minnesota Twins | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…4cfbbacked Kansas City Royals | 65c | 56.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c3a0backed Minnesota Twins | 24c | 55.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 25.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Kansas City Royals | 76c | 22.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 16.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -12.1wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 13.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 14.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.