MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x569d7fce9d52aa97a1e8188e17fd362db6a44ad9c20a0311f96ed8cf82d1f883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 9,233$5,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,266.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 50c | 6,874$3,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,437 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 5,884$2,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,942.65 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 5,491$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,074.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 1,712$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,274$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 1,113$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.23 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Under | 51c | 1,066$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.79 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 919.17$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.48 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 44c | 844.97$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.78 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Over | 46c | 673.77$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.84 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 55c | 425.33$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.74 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 51c | 294$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 263.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 75c | 235.64$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…a940backed Over | 47c | 195$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ba…7212backed Under | 54c | 195$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 56c | 165.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Under | 58c | 129.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 53c | 129.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 125.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…d601backed Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 47c | 119.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 119.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 54c | 115.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked Under | 43c | 114$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 110.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…dc88backed Over | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Over | 48c | 105.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 47c | 100.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…69e7backed Under | 58c | 95.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 95.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 83.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 47c | 77.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 48c | 54.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7e77backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 52c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 29.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7df1backed Under | 58c | 26.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 13.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 14.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.