TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,134 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Over55c6,513$3,557 inLost-$3,556.8211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under52c1,206$627 inWon+$5795,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over39c1,161$448 inLost-$447.928,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under63c1,105$700 inWon+$404.9719153.9%103 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under46c855.52$392 inWon+$463.492,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Under75c788.58$591 inWon+$197.1470546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Under30c659.51$196 inWon+$463.4597050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under63c564.14$358 inWon+$206.538,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under30c489.87$147 inWon+$342.861,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under21c354.94$74 inWon+$280.5610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under35c318.78$112 inWon+$206.556,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58c6…eeb6backed Under36c310.37$112 inWon+$198.0115942.8%68 W · 91 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Under73c300$219 inWon+$80.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under33c280$92 inWon+$188.51,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under33c280$92 inWon+$188.51,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under33c242.73$79 inWon+$163.251,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9af…f4f7backed Under11c196.64$21 inWon+$175.694740.4%19 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under32c154.07$50 inWon+$104.21,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Under33c137.5$45 inWon+$92.544744.1%197 W · 250 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Under33c135.38$44 inWon+$91.2432450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under29c129.73$37 inWon+$92.543,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…c830backed Over71c129$91 inLost-$90.996755.2%37 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Under58c121$70 inWon+$50.827758.4%45 W · 32 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over38c97.53$37 inLost-$37.235,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over62c62.35$39 inLost-$38.71,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Under69c38.24$27 inWon+$11.6772655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Under45c33.44$15 inWon+$18.241,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3965…4ef1backed Over31c32.95$10 inLost-$10.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5587…6d07backed Under48c31.41$15 inWon+$16.4151656.6%292 W · 224 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Under37c27.99$10 inWon+$17.6366056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4788…6bc3backed Under44c26.77$12 inWon+$14.952860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b95…5733backed Under76c18.63$14 inWon+$4.4821055.2%116 W · 94 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Over73c15$11 inLost-$10.9519257.8%111 W · 81 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.