MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3c4ba6129c44d60e16c9284024ec7ded88900efd711d708bbbab04777239083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under | 61c | 7,887$4,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,825.58 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Under | 50c | 3,405$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.14 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 3,319$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 65c | 2,349$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,969$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 63c | 1,925$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 47c | 1,580$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.63 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 35c | 1,129$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.34 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 1,009$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.41 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 850.94$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.04 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 37c | 823.25$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.91 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 819.01$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 37c | 756.93$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 659.49$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 65c | 538.46$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 64c | 473.16$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.56 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 37c | 382.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.09 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 64c | 373.21$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.85 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 324.76$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 39c | 249.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 52c | 246.18$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.01 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 65c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 158.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 62c | 119$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 112$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 61c | 109$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 106.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 63c | 98.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 64c | 93.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 88.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 87.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 62c | 71.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 43c | 43.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 53c | 41.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 66c | 40.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 38c | 38.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 59c | 32.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 65c | 29.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2a…bab8backed Under | 57c | 26.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 49c | 21.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Over | 56c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed Under | 62c | 18.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Under | 63c | 18.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c2…7efabacked Under | 62c | 17.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 66c | 16.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 13.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 14.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.