MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88d58908dd901ca815b9fc51dabcac77e69a8a4f9a53462c291b6ef55aa92714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 91,610$49,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,969.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 46c | 90,858$41,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,794.86 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 5,918$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,780.48 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Under | 43c | 2,987$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.25 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 2,837$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.62 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 2,594$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.29 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 57c | 1,612$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.34 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 915.77$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.62 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 55c | 888.01$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.59 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 44c | 796$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.24 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 45c | 562.86$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.66 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 494.44$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.36 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…a2a7backed Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 46c | 445.96$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.14 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 432.47$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.22 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 42c | 416.01$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked Over | 54c | 350$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 56c | 300.6$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.14 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 56c | 300$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 225$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 209.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 66c | 155$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 42c | 137$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 128.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 63c | 115.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 56c | 71.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 46c | 64.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 26c | 46.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Under | 45c | 41.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 40.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…25b2backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 57c | 23.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 13.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 14.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.