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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,311 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals67c3,000$2,010 inWon+$989.962,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins33c2,872$948 inLost-$947.7412,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals67c1,376$926 inWon+$450.2911,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals70c1,358$948 inWon+$410.798,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals78c798.25$621 inWon+$176.828,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins37c789.47$292 inLost-$292.12,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins37c626.98$233 inLost-$233.53,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins33c619.09$204 inLost-$204.34,55549.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L-9.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Kansas City Royals67c498.32$334 inWon+$164.4419248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Minnesota Twins33c483.09$159 inLost-$159.4229354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins54c399.2$216 inLost-$215.514,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Minnesota Twins13c384.62$50 inLost-$5063943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Minnesota Twins34c358.07$122 inLost-$121.741,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Kansas City Royals67c339.98$228 inWon+$112.1989053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Minnesota Twins33c322$106 inLost-$106.2636250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Minnesota Twins31c299.99$92 inLost-$92.521149.3%104 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Kansas City Royals67c254.99$171 inWon+$84.151,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals67c200$134 inWon+$665,56750.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L+25.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins13c167$22 inLost-$21.625,24056.8%2,974 W · 2,266 L+130.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Minnesota Twins37c132.62$49 inLost-$49.071,74549.1%857 W · 888 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins36c127.49$46 inLost-$46.2911,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Minnesota Twins32c112$36 inLost-$36.051,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins24c74.09$18 inLost-$18.096,30948.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins27c69$19 inLost-$18.858,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins15c67.68$10 inLost-$10.356,13255.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L+346.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58c6…eeb6backed Minnesota Twins18c61.53$11 inLost-$1115942.8%68 W · 91 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals80c59.38$48 inWon+$11.883,46751.2%1,775 W · 1,692 L+105.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals68c43.64$30 inWon+$13.961,97953.2%1,052 W · 927 L+45.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Kansas City Royals67c40.42$27 inWon+$13.341,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Minnesota Twins33c39$13 inLost-$12.871,73850.4%876 W · 862 L+57.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Minnesota Twins34c37.32$13 inLost-$12.6966659.5%396 W · 270 L+2.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Twins31c35$11 inLost-$10.953,23151.2%1,655 W · 1,576 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fa9…9945backed Minnesota Twins33c31.57$10 inLost-$10.423036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdca…5382backed Minnesota Twins33c31.3$10 inLost-$10.335937.3%22 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Kansas City Royals58c22.84$13 inWon+$9.5921852.8%115 W · 103 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Kansas City Royals66c20$13 inWon+$6.82,32751.1%1,188 W · 1,139 L+26.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.