TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Hornets, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,069,014
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,026,289

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,069,014 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Magic42c525,000$220,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304,5009745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Hornets58c505,508$293,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293,194.429336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Magic41c428,486$175,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252,806.7972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f28…266ebacked Hornets61c312,512$190,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190,632.323145.2%14 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic66c244,304$160,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,760.391,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Hornets58c217,111$125,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125,924.6636549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Magic41c211,835$85,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,864.5511137.8%42 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Magic41c202,566$83,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119,513.9432653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Hornets52c150,346$78,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,583.8519653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Magic58c147,305$85,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,040.1866248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Hornets38c146,651$55,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,547.2485742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Hornets1c134,526$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.2119033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Hornets14c122,290$17,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,245.3413544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Magic71c121,647$85,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,802.211,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Magic43c113,369$48,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,090.697243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9410…ffcdbacked Hornets25c100,303$24,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,903.044030%12 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Hornets58c99,321$57,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,947.6940446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Magic40c94,359$38,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,317.731,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8293…ddf4backed Magic42c92,461$38,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,627.451942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Hornets0c90,260$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5211741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic40c90,000$35,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,399.991,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic39c89,618$35,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,283.061,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc450…e677backed Hornets59c88,924$52,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,142.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Hornets53c88,495$47,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,219.573036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic38c82,088$31,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,544.7287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a67…e403backed Hornets58c76,482$44,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,359.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Hornets57c67,517$38,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,484.6839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…465cbacked Hornets61c66,402$40,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,505.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Magic43c65,753$28,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,748.614143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hornets26c65,630$16,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,825.011,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Hornets2c52,648$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.6564944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Hornets57c52,340$29,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,833.671,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Hornets60c50,309$29,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,982.420454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Magic53c47,405$25,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,169.3642348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Magic42c45,962$19,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,657.95253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Magic39c38,000$14,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,18032540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Hornets18c35,424$6,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,331.581,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d6a…1c08backed Hornets59c35,000$20,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,6501942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea21…99ddbacked Hornets25c33,870$8,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,397.467656.6%43 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Hornets1c32,675$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.397115.5%11 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hornets58c31,698$18,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,384.61,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Magic39c31,279$12,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,080.0137355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Hornets2c30,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Hornets1c29,008$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.853627.8%10 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic54c28,953$15,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,367.842,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Magic47c27,807$13,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,768.716547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Hornets60c25,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00061851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Hornets29c25,000$7,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2507946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Hornets45c24,812$11,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,129.811,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Hornets16c23,318$3,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,787.879741.2%40 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Hornets58c20,000$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,599.984753.2%25 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Hornets62c19,538$12,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,015.912251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x938f…a768backed Hornets5c19,272$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.592650%13 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed Hornets3c19,100$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48037141.8%155 W · 216 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Hornets1c19,034$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.347211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa362…a3e3backed Hornets2c18,830$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.071338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Hornets58c18,460$10,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,723.44963.3%31 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Hornets10c16,732$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.691,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Hornets37c16,585$6,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,101.2362144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Magic42c16,332$6,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,488.5563746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Hornets52c16,132$8,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,330.0541954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Hornets52c14,662$7,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,581.1317962%111 W · 68 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Magic42c14,555$6,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,441.94734%16 W · 31 L-6.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Hornets59c14,367$8,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,536.671,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Hornets58c14,239$8,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,258.3620744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6911…5318backed Hornets60c13,712$8,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,182.432653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fbc…ccc1backed Hornets4c13,712$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.219048.9%44 W · 46 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Hornets2c13,636$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.144042.5%17 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Magic39c13,500$5,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,189.9865939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Magic39c13,500$5,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,189.9586641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic73c12,302$8,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,352.238,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Hornets58c12,237$7,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,097.2913551.1%69 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Hornets58c12,235$7,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,096.581,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Hornets25c11,876$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.6519443.3%84 W · 110 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb94…243cbacked Hornets59c11,805$6,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,922.874440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Hornets51c11,626$5,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,931.5735650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Hornets62c11,608$7,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,196.849330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Hornets43c11,469$4,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,970.8216159.6%96 W · 65 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Hornets0c11,281$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2819432%62 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hornets17c10,972$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.163,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Magic59c10,724$6,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,384.5325226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8cb3…8ed1backed Magic39c10,300$4,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,283728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac39…95c7backed Magic43c10,107$4,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,761.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+90%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hornets16c10,026$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.5382442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Hornets59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,90018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Magic42c10,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,80035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f5…51e3backed Hornets0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd21…a494backed Hornets58c10,000$5,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,849.995246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e94…7f1ebacked Hornets2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007742.9%33 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Hornets60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.9511333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf531…b062backed Hornets8c9,894$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.0854838%208 W · 340 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Magic41c9,826$4,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.0772241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hornets9c9,336$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.041,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30d1…cd88backed Hornets59c8,900$5,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2514151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6012…685abacked Hornets9c8,824$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.012634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic41c8,754$3,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,172.994,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b8…b4d4backed Hornets13c8,697$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.145054%27 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Magic65c8,538$5,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,954.4765349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Hornets1c8,536$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4667911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ac…6ab1backed Hornets8c8,504$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.9119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.