TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-24.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,993

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,214 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x39fc…e2f2backed Hornets1c3,950$58 inLost-$57.7534255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hornets44c2,265$999 inLost-$999.193,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Magic42c2,128$901 inWon+$1,226.9161638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f9…bcd9backed Hornets56c1,799$1,012 inLost-$1,011.54841.7%20 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Hornets45c1,046$475 inLost-$474.861,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Hornets1c1,000$10 inLost-$10437%3 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Hornets2c818.35$13 inLost-$13.1627553.5%147 W · 128 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Magic45c649.62$290 inWon+$359.585545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic45c611.37$277 inWon+$334.163,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Hornets4c527.26$24 inLost-$23.5778639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Hornets7c435.11$31 inLost-$30.6731238.5%120 W · 192 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…46e5backed Hornets50c233.21$116 inLost-$116.396132.8%20 W · 41 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Magic68c151.36$103 inWon+$48.4927463.5%174 W · 100 L+34.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a04…ea4cbacked Hornets65c150.42$98 inLost-$97.91425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Hornets11c137$15 inLost-$15.0780440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic49c127.51$62 inWon+$65.351,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Magic55c103.01$57 inWon+$46.26876.5%52 W · 16 L+12.8wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+29.7%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Magic56c94.74$53 inWon+$41.6510745.8%49 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Hornets20c80.94$17 inLost-$16.5252230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Hornets48c77.76$37 inLost-$37.2815353.6%82 W · 71 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Magic49c76.58$37 inWon+$39.32,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Magic41c53.05$22 inWon+$31.3591846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Magic50c50$25 inWon+$25.1924454.1%132 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13bb…33a4backed Hornets53c48.59$26 inLost-$25.751566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Magic40c48.2$19 inWon+$28.9252052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Magic37c48.11$18 inWon+$30.3145445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Magic37c44.26$16 inWon+$27.8827138.7%105 W · 166 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Magic50c42$21 inWon+$2140440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Magic44c29.77$13 inWon+$16.671,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa590…271cbacked Magic42c25.55$11 inWon+$14.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+41.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a3…4310backed Magic50c20$10 inWon+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.