NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 106.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72e1dbf12e5a6751e107f8a47cd6f79ec53f0b334f132740251d05312bfbeb43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb240…df51backed Over | 51c | 3,370$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.96 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.6wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 51c | 3,200$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.02 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.99 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 2,882$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.78 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 49c | 1,293$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.22 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 839.05$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.56 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Under | 51c | 645.59$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.51 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 51c | 375.07$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.29 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Over | 51c | 310.97$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…a6ddbacked Over | 51c | 283.57$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.62 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Over | 51c | 272.27$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 42c | 241.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.21 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…57febacked Over | 56c | 218.05$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 44c | 202.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.66 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x763c…25b2backed Over | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c4…fe0abacked Over | 58c | 194.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Over | 55c | 175.69$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Over | 51c | 161.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 154.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…2b3abacked Over | 53c | 131.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…b695backed Under | 59c | 116.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 46c | 106.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 50c | 106.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…e28fbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 94.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 61.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 36c | 59.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 51c | 43.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…e52ebacked Over | 50c | 42.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 51c | 39.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 51c | 39.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 67c | 39.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 51c | 30.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…6a30backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 50c | 25.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 22.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 106.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Magic won
- Brandon Miller: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Hornets vs. MagicMagic won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 210.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 211.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 213.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 214.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 216.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 217.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 218.5Under won
- Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 16.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Miles Bridges: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-24.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-27.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.