TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-27.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,334 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x255a…3435backed Hornets43c1,133$486 inLost-$486.4361638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic29c733.68$210 inWon+$523.223,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hornets35c597.35$211 inLost-$210.923,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Magic40c545.68$216 inWon+$329.5534255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Magic58c432.75$251 inWon+$181.571,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Hornets46c379.05$174 inLost-$173.6389850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Hornets68c320.76$219 inLost-$218.741,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Magic35c157.3$55 inWon+$102.736636.4%24 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Magic50c146.49$74 inWon+$72.9895452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Magic37c130.45$48 inWon+$82.527553.5%147 W · 128 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed Hornets51c104.46$53 inLost-$53.398744.8%39 W · 48 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c88…5463backed Hornets39c61.43$24 inLost-$24.095151%26 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a33…9a46backed Hornets45c59.99$27 inLost-$2713953.2%74 W · 65 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Hornets49c55.27$27 inLost-$27.315353.6%82 W · 71 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Magic55c51.98$29 inWon+$23.167572%54 W · 21 L+11.7wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Hornets42c48.26$20 inLost-$20.2752052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Hornets40c48.2$19 inLost-$19.289748.5%47 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf5…e71cbacked Hornets75c39.4$30 inLost-$29.555635.7%20 W · 36 L-8.4wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1643…6ec8backed Magic31c33.52$10 inWon+$23.295858.6%34 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33a6…3895backed Hornets78c26.53$21 inLost-$20.691040%4 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-43.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa590…271cbacked Hornets41c26.04$11 inLost-$10.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+41.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.