NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03541181a82b37b49a18d657a8a5c290f3e48c115a6afc91e6ad46a182571092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Red Wings, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $915,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,067,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $915,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 635 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Red Wings | 37c | 129,508$47,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,914.32 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Red Wings | 38c | 95,146$35,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,920.18 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 63c | 57,655$36,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,317.99 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebbb…4214backed Lightning | 54c | 51,868$28,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,814.18 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Lightning | 63c | 49,609$31,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,540.09 | 485 | 49.7%241 W · 244 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…4654backed Red Wings | 46c | 44,717$20,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,570 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Lightning | 63c | 39,683$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,682.54 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Lightning | 63c | 35,150$22,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,005.5 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Lightning | 62c | 31,050$19,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,799 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Lightning | 63c | 30,000$18,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,100 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Red Wings | 37c | 30,000$11,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,099.99 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Red Wings | 37c | 27,966$10,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,347.56 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Lightning | 62c | 27,870$17,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,551.72 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…236dbacked Red Wings | 37c | 26,671$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999.66 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Lightning | 63c | 20,000$12,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,400 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Red Wings | 38c | 16,707$6,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,358.35 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Lightning | 62c | 15,083$9,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,731.68 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1862backed Lightning | 63c | 14,900$9,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,513 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.6wins | -0.31per pick | 55cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning | 62c | 11,412$7,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,336.54 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 69c | 10,609$7,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,258.56 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…b3abbacked Lightning | 63c | 10,000$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Red Wings | 38c | 10,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning | 63c | 9,798$6,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,656.43 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 63c | 8,518$5,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,162.04 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Red Wings | 37c | 8,103$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Lightning | 63c | 8,000$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…c9b2backed Lightning | 62c | 7,037$4,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,673.92 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Red Wings | 26c | 6,653$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.98 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Lightning | 62c | 6,295$3,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,393.02 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 62c | 6,055$3,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.99 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Lightning | 63c | 6,000$3,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,220 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Lightning | 63c | 5,701$3,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.36 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Lightning | 63c | 5,471$3,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.27 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Lightning | 63c | 5,461$3,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…476cbacked Lightning | 58c | 5,215$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.42 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Red Wings | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Red Wings | 35c | 4,938$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.59 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Red Wings | 25c | 4,872$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.43 | 332 | 34.3%114 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf11…c679backed Red Wings | 38c | 4,769$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lightning | 68c | 4,369$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.09 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…378fbacked Lightning | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Lightning | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Lightning | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Red Wings | 37c | 4,000$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings | 30c | 3,764$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.18 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Lightning | 56c | 3,755$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.88 | 369 | 48%177 W · 192 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Red Wings | 18c | 3,732$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.49 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Red Wings | 37c | 3,434$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.51 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Red Wings | 44c | 3,383$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.77 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Red Wings | 37c | 3,332$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.82 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Red Wings | 36c | 3,322$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.87 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…307dbacked Lightning | 63c | 3,175$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Lightning | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…b002backed Lightning | 63c | 2,709$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.26 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Lightning | 63c | 2,698$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.41 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…0b30backed Lightning | 63c | 2,663$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lightning | 75c | 2,575$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.73 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…9125backed Red Wings | 36c | 2,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Lightning | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Red Wings | 36c | 2,469$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.99 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Red Wings | 17c | 2,439$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.76 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Red Wings | 38c | 2,368$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 63c | 2,348$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.62 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Lightning | 63c | 2,208$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.96 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Red Wings | 11c | 2,182$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb10d…4ba0backed Lightning | 62c | 2,177$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Lightning | 63c | 2,144$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.44 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…345cbacked Lightning | 63c | 2,120$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Red Wings | 33c | 2,114$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.04 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba5…56dfbacked Red Wings | 38c | 2,028$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Lightning | 52c | 2,021$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.96 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…2941backed Lightning | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Lightning | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…28dcbacked Lightning | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Red Wings | 35c | 1,905$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.64 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…38e7backed Red Wings | 6c | 1,833$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Red Wings | 35c | 1,805$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.44 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed Lightning | 63c | 1,746$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.03 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Lightning | 72c | 1,715$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.55 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Red Wings | 36c | 1,710$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.59 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…7577backed Lightning | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Lightning | 64c | 1,543$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.43 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed Lightning | 63c | 1,510$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…7991backed Lightning | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Lightning | 62c | 1,450$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.46 | 459 | 55.1%253 W · 206 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Lightning | 63c | 1,398$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning | 62c | 1,371$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.97 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ed…e473backed Red Wings | 36c | 1,300$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Lightning | 77c | 1,115$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.16 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Red Wings | 31c | 1,073$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.82 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…c2c6backed Lightning | 62c | 1,048$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…2259backed Lightning | 62c | 1,010$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…5dfebacked Lightning | 63c | 1,001$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Lightning | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.04 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Red Wings | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.02 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff6…537ebacked Red Wings | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Lightning | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e5…9343backed Lightning | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Lightning | 62c | 999.96$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Lightning | 63c | 985.9$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Lightningthis page
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.