NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07817fc3db8b8b6e0683155041efd3b710a5e02f64bd3448ae10722c5bdd44e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Lightning, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Lightning | 37c | 1,010$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.8 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Red Wings | 63c | 930.41$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.25 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 42c | 666.4$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.56 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Red Wings | 57c | 625.88$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.13 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Red Wings | 65c | 399.09$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.58 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…cbb4backed Lightning | 49c | 397.4$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lightning | 36c | 163.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Lightning | 41c | 152.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 749 | 51.8%388 W · 361 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…e2b8backed Red Wings | 26c | 149.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lightning | 35c | 127.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Red Wings | 66c | 85.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Red Wings | 58c | 82.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Red Wings | 58c | 77.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Red Wings | 58c | 63.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Red Wings | 58c | 61.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Lightning | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…4db6backed Red Wings | 57c | 52.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Lightning | 47c | 52.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Red Wings | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Red Wings | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Lightning | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Lightning | 39c | 46.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Lightning | 32c | 46.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Lightning | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Lightning | 43c | 40.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 60c | 38.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings | 51c | 35.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Red Wings | 58c | 30.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Lightning | 42c | 29.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1e…569ebacked Red Wings | 59c | 17.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. LightningLightning won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.