NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a595ccdf0b1eb14af7f3eb365f45498074ae516ff254e81fdc29155eac0631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 54c | 4,626$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.65 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 2,213$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.28 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Over | 46c | 2,118$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.83 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 1c | 1,045$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 47c | 511$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 54c | 491.84$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.16 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 49c | 445.8$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.29 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 47c | 391.38$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.43 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 367.65$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.53 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 54c | 305$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 50c | 300$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.65 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…c851backed Under | 53c | 289$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 26c | 263.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd72…01c4backed Over | 48c | 233$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 52c | 205$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 10c | 197.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 67c | 192.76$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 46c | 185.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 43c | 143.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b69…2161backed Over | 47c | 143$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb7…3f4bbacked Over | 47c | 143$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8f…43adbacked Over | 47c | 136$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Under | 52c | 129$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 47c | 65.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Under | 54c | 54.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 53.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 47c | 52.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8aa…fa54backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…bb4abacked Over | 48c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…31a9backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…5c59backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…a4a5backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af0…3010backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd835…92ccbacked Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…d55bbacked Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 55c | 25.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 69c | 25.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…e2cdbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…51babacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…fb9ebacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd225…b157backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0859…a178backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 42c | 24.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3c…06d3backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…8ec0backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…75f2backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…d01ebacked Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…c37fbacked Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…41cabacked Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e4…1d34backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf03…32fbbacked Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…b614backed Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…c117backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…cf31backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f8…2922backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6051…67cdbacked Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed3…5426backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…4a26backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fd…c2d4backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…5659backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c2…94babacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13b1…b759backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42eb…bf6dbacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…b008backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Red Wings vs. LightningLightning won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.