UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e79a89075048d07da4186e9e1323c5122465bd63a66e4b443a9e4aacfa3cb2c

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Myktybek Orolbaiof Chris Curtis, Myktybek Orolbai
Resolved: Mar 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $305,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,183 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Chris Curtis	20c	99,468$19,894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,893.62	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Myktybek Orolbai	80c	33,350$26,672 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,678.87	145	58.6%85 W · 60 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Myktybek Orolbai	80c	25,000$20,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,000	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Myktybek Orolbai	73c	24,772$18,078 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,694.05	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+5.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Chris Curtis	27c	20,000$5,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,400	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Myktybek Orolbai	80c	17,390$13,912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,477.9	115	54.8%63 W · 52 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chris Curtis	19c	8,000$1,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,519.97	300	39.3%118 W · 182 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Chris Curtis	19c	6,000$1,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,139.98	67	38.8%26 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed2…4671backed Chris Curtis	26c	5,372$1,382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,381.6	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Myktybek Orolbai	77c	5,181$3,999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,181.57	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7a…8536backed Chris Curtis	20c	5,000$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$995	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	49cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Chris Curtis	26c	4,901$1,276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,276.33	156	41%64 W · 92 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Chris Curtis	24c	4,660$1,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,116.48	88	48.9%43 W · 45 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Myktybek Orolbai	78c	3,500$2,728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$771.62	171	58.5%100 W · 71 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Chris Curtis	23c	3,081$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$716.02	87	54%47 W · 40 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Myktybek Orolbai	80c	2,500$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Chris Curtis	26c	2,435$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.01	117	61.5%72 W · 45 L	+5.6wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Chris Curtis	9c	2,222$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chris Curtis	12c	2,106$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.27	60	45%27 W · 33 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Chris Curtis	21c	2,027$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.6	202	33.7%68 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Chris Curtis	24c	1,959$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.11	180	38.9%70 W · 110 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Myktybek Orolbai	75c	1,854$1,398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.72	78	62.8%49 W · 29 L	+7.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+17%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Chris Curtis	23c	1,710$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	186	47.3%88 W · 98 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Chris Curtis	19c	1,600$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304	208	37%77 W · 131 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Myktybek Orolbai	80c	1,559$1,247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.82	70	40%28 W · 42 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aab…9ae0backed Chris Curtis	27c	1,481$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa850…f1babacked Chris Curtis	20c	1,344$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.8	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Myktybek Orolbai	80c	1,103$883 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.66	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Myktybek Orolbai	75c	1,030$772 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.4	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Chris Curtis	25c	1,022$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.4	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Myktybek Orolbai	80c	1,000$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	267	43.8%117 W · 150 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Myktybek Orolbai	72c	1,000$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	69cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Chris Curtis	22c	1,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	91	47.3%43 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Myktybek Orolbai	78c	981.61$766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.95	309	64.7%200 W · 109 L	+24.5wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Chris Curtis	22c	908$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.76	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Myktybek Orolbai	80c	906$725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.2	53	62.3%33 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a3…d2aebacked Myktybek Orolbai	77c	897.5$689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.18	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	69cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f22…6482backed Myktybek Orolbai	73c	821.92$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.92	97	56.7%55 W · 42 L	-6.6wins	-0.07per pick	63cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Chris Curtis	20c	799.08$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.82	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	34cpaid	-82%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Chris Curtis	17c	764.86$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.03	356	48.6%173 W · 183 L	+16.8wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb752…767dbacked Chris Curtis	23c	709.41$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Chris Curtis	22c	699.99$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Chris Curtis	19c	677.42$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.95	109	49.5%54 W · 55 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89a…8667backed Myktybek Orolbai	72c	672.65$484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.34	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Myktybek Orolbai	80c	666$533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.2	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ff3…d376backed Myktybek Orolbai	76c	657.89$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.89	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Chris Curtis	14c	605$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.85	88	40.9%36 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Myktybek Orolbai	80c	600$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	243	56.8%138 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Chris Curtis	7c	599.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	377	54.6%206 W · 171 L	+19.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e2d…40b1backed Chris Curtis	26c	514.22$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.3	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed Myktybek Orolbai	76c	506.99$386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.17	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Chris Curtis	21c	503.99$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.84	92	28.3%26 W · 66 L	-7.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Chris Curtis	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	86	50%43 W · 43 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8803…cd6ebacked Chris Curtis	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.17per pick	35cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Myktybek Orolbai	78c	500$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	226	61.9%140 W · 86 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ea…ae46backed Myktybek Orolbai	71c	499.99$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	39	76.9%30 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	68cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Myktybek Orolbai	75c	478.46$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.6	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Chris Curtis	21c	475.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x940c…6d07backed Chris Curtis	22c	465.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.17	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Chris Curtis	22c	461.59$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	125	57.6%72 W · 53 L	+11.9wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Chris Curtis	26c	460$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.6	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Myktybek Orolbai	76c	443.98$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.56	54	46.3%25 W · 29 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bce…6c1dbacked Myktybek Orolbai	72c	416.67$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.67	65	69.2%45 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc72e…656dbacked Myktybek Orolbai	80c	412.71$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.71	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	70cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Chris Curtis	22c	400$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Chris Curtis	14c	391.11$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.36	331	32%106 W · 225 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…27a7backed Chris Curtis	20c	387.95$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.59	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Myktybek Orolbai	73c	386.11$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.25	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-5.3wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87b8…29dcbacked Chris Curtis	27c	380$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.6	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-31%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Chris Curtis	20c	373$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.6	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Chris Curtis	20c	363$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.6	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-4.1wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Chris Curtis	20c	341$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.2	96	36.5%35 W · 61 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked Myktybek Orolbai	73c	308$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.16	94	59.6%56 W · 38 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Myktybek Orolbai	80c	300$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	263	52.1%137 W · 126 L	+23.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Chris Curtis	27c	292.7$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.03	62	69.4%43 W · 19 L	+11.2wins	+0.18per pick	51cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Myktybek Orolbai	76c	291.42$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.94	417	54%225 W · 192 L	+12.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Chris Curtis	21c	281.82$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	105	33.3%35 W · 70 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Chris Curtis	22c	268$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.96	209	33.5%70 W · 139 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Myktybek Orolbai	76c	257.72$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.85	134	65.7%88 W · 46 L	+10.1wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Chris Curtis	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91a…4ea7backed Chris Curtis	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	25cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a0b…c5f8backed Chris Curtis	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0667…4a4bbacked Chris Curtis	21c	238.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Chris Curtis	21c	232.42$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb941…b56bbacked Chris Curtis	28c	230.23$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	76	44.7%34 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Chris Curtis	29c	226.67$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Myktybek Orolbai	75c	209.99$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.1	520	52.9%275 W · 245 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb66…ea21backed Chris Curtis	5c	208.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc71a…f135backed Myktybek Orolbai	72c	207.76$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.2	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	66cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Myktybek Orolbai	80c	206.55$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.31	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Chris Curtis	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Myktybek Orolbai	79c	200$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	76	71.1%54 W · 22 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Chris Curtis	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	181	41.4%75 W · 106 L	+10.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa61b…6559backed Chris Curtis	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe09f…c85cbacked Chris Curtis	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f5…5914backed Chris Curtis	24c	196.05$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.82	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x465b…41c3backed Chris Curtis	28c	193.56$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.02	69	44.9%31 W · 38 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11bf…770dbacked Chris Curtis	21c	190.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3af…aca1backed Chris Curtis	27c	185.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.25per pick	32cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a6e…8fe0backed Chris Curtis	27c	185.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	47cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)this page
Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Will Myktybek Orolbai win by KO or TKO?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event