UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a3e69134f4d9147a5be6b6ede31f110c9c9f1ac5fdb7ba352618c14c13bcf8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,049 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 43c | 62,979$27,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,080.92 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 57c | 23,900$13,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,277 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Over | 57c | 16,138$9,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,944.07 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Over | 57c | 5,263$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.16 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Over | 57c | 5,084$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.21 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Over | 57c | 4,391$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.15 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Over | 57c | 2,375$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 57c | 2,350$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.5 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 44c | 891.31$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.17 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…3858backed Over | 57c | 596.49$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…a82fbacked Over | 56c | 541.21$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 57c | 460$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 41c | 431.73$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.01 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Over | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 57c | 368.42$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.42 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…20d1backed Over | 57c | 337.16$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 57c | 292.15$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 57c | 233.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 44c | 190.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 181.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 57c | 175.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Over | 61c | 147.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 39c | 121.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Over | 61c | 119.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82fa…963cbacked Over | 57c | 117.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Under | 44c | 83.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Over | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d1…28adbacked Over | 57c | 60.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a7…7916backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…272cbacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 55c | 35.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…aab2backed Over | 60c | 33.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Under | 43c | 31.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked Over | 57c | 24.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)Myktybek Orolbai won
- Will Myktybek Orolbai win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.