TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x739a…aab2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Champions League, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 51 out of 100; worst UFC at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT3647.2%17 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Joaquin Buckley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Khamzat Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.71
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Jared Gordon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Kyler Phillips · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.71
UFC Fight Night: Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Daria Zhelezniakova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.59
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Chris Duncan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.15
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Jose Delano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.6
UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Alessandro Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$11.02
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Maycee Barber · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$11.23
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Ignacio Bahamondes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Tyrell Fortune · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$10.64
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$22.63
UFC Fight Night: Gillian Robertson vs. Amanda Lemos (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)backed Amanda Lemos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+67.9%+$13.58
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Vitor Petrino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$12.88
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Bruno Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Manoel Sousa win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$10.64
UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Hecher Sosa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$25.06
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+56.3%+$28.69
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$21.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$11.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Jannik Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuelabacked Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Knicks (-12.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flyers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.