UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ca89760edad402aca183a2b129436e5c4e218dc5af44b6c8f912be4157a98d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,286 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Over | 59c | 113,389$66,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,899.64 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 41c | 100,000$41,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,999.99 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 11,475$4,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,770.53 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 41c | 9,000$3,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,310 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Over | 59c | 5,085$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 59c | 1,515$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.61 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 39c | 1,266$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.26 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Over | 61c | 718$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.98 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 40c | 675$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 42c | 352.79$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.77 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 58c | 275.86$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Over | 59c | 241.69$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82fa…963cbacked Over | 59c | 240.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 61c | 204.92$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…674fbacked Over | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 61c | 113.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Over | 61c | 109.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 37c | 109.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Under | 41c | 85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Under | 41c | 85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 61c | 65.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…aab2backed Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Over | 58c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a7…7916backed Over | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Over | 62c | 41.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…c9aabacked Under | 43c | 41.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddc…7b90backed Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…114ebacked Under | 43c | 34.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…492ebacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc729…138bbacked Over | 61c | 26.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Ion Cutelaba won
- Will Oumar Sy win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.