TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ion Cutelabaof Ion Cutelaba, Oumar Sy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$505,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,886 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07b8…8e25backed Ion Cutelaba25c26,000$6,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,509.997245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Oumar Sy72c20,840$15,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,096.8210949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Oumar Sy74c20,000$14,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,799.9710542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Oumar Sy6c11,649$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.3635848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Oumar Sy75c11,250$8,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,437.7314558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ion Cutelaba27c11,000$3,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,979.9830039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Ion Cutelaba27c8,166$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,936.576738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Oumar Sy74c7,920$5,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,860.566850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Ion Cutelaba27c7,581$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,499.528434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf99e…4d03backed Oumar Sy1c7,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6dc…a4a1backed Oumar Sy1c7,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417e…85e4backed Oumar Sy1c7,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f9f…6a22backed Ion Cutelaba26c6,088$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,505.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Oumar Sy1c6,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcd…445ebacked Oumar Sy1c6,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be9…8e34backed Oumar Sy1c6,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d3d…5f66backed Oumar Sy1c6,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Oumar Sy1c6,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Ion Cutelaba27c5,779$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,214.792729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf05c…66b9backed Oumar Sy1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Ion Cutelaba38c4,623$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.266048.3%29 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Oumar Sy72c4,563$3,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.463455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Oumar Sy74c4,024$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,991.626743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23ec…759fbacked Oumar Sy1c4,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Oumar Sy1c4,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+215.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Oumar Sy59c3,943$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.615939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Ion Cutelaba26c3,846$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dbc…d4adbacked Ion Cutelaba26c3,846$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.044050%20 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+37.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Ion Cutelaba57c3,308$1,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.6421247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Oumar Sy76c3,306$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006063.3%38 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ion Cutelaba27c2,932$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.578848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed Oumar Sy2c2,850$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick16cpaid+52.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Ion Cutelaba30c2,518$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.9115641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c10…544abacked Oumar Sy1c2,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Oumar Sy76c2,481$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.961566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62ca…1277backed Oumar Sy7c2,400$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Ion Cutelaba27c2,350$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d31…0286backed Oumar Sy75c2,263$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Ion Cutelaba29c2,005$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.18840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Ion Cutelaba27c2,000$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.248636%31 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Oumar Sy1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Oumar Sy75c1,738$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.8511554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Ion Cutelaba28c1,709$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.526045%27 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Ion Cutelaba27c1,616$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.981330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Oumar Sy73c1,441$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.174548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Oumar Sy71c1,408$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9990553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Ion Cutelaba28c1,404$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.15650%28 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b1…afbdbacked Oumar Sy72c1,389$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Ion Cutelaba25c1,330$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.58220.7%17 W · 65 L-12.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Oumar Sy7c1,304$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.987251.4%37 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Ion Cutelaba37c1,300$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81914129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7762…309ebacked Oumar Sy63c1,300$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8192552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Ion Cutelaba26c1,282$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.929133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Ion Cutelaba29c1,272$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.112528%7 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked Oumar Sy3c1,250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332015%3 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5578…f06cbacked Oumar Sy2c1,200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Ion Cutelaba25c1,200$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9920837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Oumar Sy75c1,115$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.394546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718c…50eabacked Ion Cutelaba27c1,111$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.112356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Ion Cutelaba30c1,053$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.320954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Ion Cutelaba25c1,040$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78018647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Ion Cutelaba43c1,027$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.1531855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Oumar Sy75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75030964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Oumar Sy75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505775.4%43 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Oumar Sy76c1,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7606953.6%37 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Ion Cutelaba30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70026451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9092…554ebacked Oumar Sy1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Oumar Sy1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea1…f17ebacked Oumar Sy1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe86c…739bbacked Oumar Sy1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Oumar Sy72c972$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.8442054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee7…6760backed Ion Cutelaba31c964.79$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.087343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Ion Cutelaba25c945.32$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.999240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb925…0f4abacked Ion Cutelaba43c934.85$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.855335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Ion Cutelaba39c850$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.522450%12 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Oumar Sy72c833.33$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Ion Cutelaba40c832$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.373148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…434ebacked Ion Cutelaba26c825.43$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Ion Cutelaba26c769.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.2329848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Ion Cutelaba37c761$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.845841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bce…6c1dbacked Oumar Sy69c725.83$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006569.2%45 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…baa0backed Ion Cutelaba32c720.5$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.515244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Ion Cutelaba37c706$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.942454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x384d…d538backed Oumar Sy74c700$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Ion Cutelaba26c699.96$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.9736745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e4…73f9backed Oumar Sy74c675.68$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006660.6%40 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Ion Cutelaba35c668$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.964240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f5…e4c2backed Oumar Sy75c666.63$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Ion Cutelaba26c666.38$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.387940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Oumar Sy51c655.86$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.0914530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Ion Cutelaba26c630.47$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.637754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Oumar Sy70c616$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.24337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Ion Cutelaba25c608.32$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.2414237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Ion Cutelaba29c572$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.848754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Oumar Sy7c566$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.625451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6702…0fefbacked Oumar Sy75c541.33$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Ion Cutelaba25c527.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.998622.1%19 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Ion Cutelaba29c525.64$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.6451533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Oumar Sy74c500$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37022661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef46…b0eabacked Oumar Sy58c499.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.