UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd6d9b6209564a3401a3d4caa5bb97ec1ae490a85274684bd3f1a735971bfd69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alessandro Costaof Alessandro Costa, Stewart Nicoll
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 18,002$3,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780.5 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 12,471$9,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.88 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 6,175$4,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Alessandro Costa | 79c | 5,965$4,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.57 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 5,938$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.67 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6551…e043backed Stewart Nicoll | 20c | 5,350$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…6760backed Stewart Nicoll | 20c | 4,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 3,704$2,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.59 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 3,001$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.14 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6482backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 3,000$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.54 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…6bf7backed Stewart Nicoll | 2c | 2,696$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Stewart Nicoll | 6c | 2,462$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Alessandro Costa | 78c | 2,300$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.96 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 2,196$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.2 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Stewart Nicoll | 6c | 1,868$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Stewart Nicoll | 12c | 1,803$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.6 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Stewart Nicoll | 20c | 1,309$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.84 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Stewart Nicoll | 20c | 1,200$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 1,146$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.11 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Stewart Nicoll | 10c | 1,134$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Stewart Nicoll | 11c | 1,019$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Stewart Nicoll | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 995.38$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.08 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 933.68$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.14 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 916.26$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.58 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Stewart Nicoll | 12c | 882.72$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…325dbacked Stewart Nicoll | 19c | 831.05$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.05 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Stewart Nicoll | 12c | 800.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 723.02$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.83 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Stewart Nicoll | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Stewart Nicoll | 12c | 698.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked Alessandro Costa | 79c | 684.31$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.78 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 613.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.82 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 556.88$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Alessandro Costa | 79c | 550$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Alessandro Costa | 79c | 509.69$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.03 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 494$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 487.22$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.19 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Stewart Nicoll | 18c | 481.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 476.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 433.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Stewart Nicoll | 20c | 425.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 393.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Stewart Nicoll | 10c | 367.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Alessandro Costa | 77c | 351.01$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Stewart Nicoll | 10c | 346.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 333.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 325.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Stewart Nicoll | 16c | 314.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Stewart Nicoll | 23c | 313.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 302.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Alessandro Costa | 78c | 300.68$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Stewart Nicoll | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Stewart Nicoll | 11c | 283.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Alessandro Costa | 78c | 278.37$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…cb10backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Stewart Nicoll | 10c | 220.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2080backed Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 208.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3434…dfe7backed Stewart Nicoll | 11c | 206.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 199.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…f36dbacked Stewart Nicoll | 10c | 198.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Stewart Nicoll | 11c | 195.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 191.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 190.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 187.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 178.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 156.41$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Stewart Nicoll | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 149.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 143.26$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Stewart Nicoll | 17c | 141.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 132 | 21.2%28 W · 104 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Stewart Nicoll | 10c | 139.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Alessandro Costa | 77c | 128$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked Stewart Nicoll | 23c | 125.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…847cbacked Alessandro Costa | 79c | 125.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a68…98aebacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 265 | 69.4%184 W · 81 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Stewart Nicoll | 9c | 112.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37e…bb9abacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 111.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Stewart Nicoll | 9c | 109.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 107.1$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Stewart Nicoll | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2e…56d9backed Stewart Nicoll | 16c | 99.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Stewart Nicoll | 23c | 99.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…25abbacked Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 99.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 98.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Stewart Nicoll | 14c | 97.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…2071backed Stewart Nicoll | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Stewart Nicoll | 19c | 90.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…9b83backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 90.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…398cbacked Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Alessandro Costa | 76c | 83.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db3…32d1backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 77.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Stewart Nicoll | 22c | 76.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…4ce6backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 74.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Stewart Nicoll | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 69.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…bc4bbacked Stewart Nicoll | 18c | 68.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Alessandro Costa win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Stewart Nicoll win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.