UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde361d6704d24f02429f05ff3d88ca8c7ee965da26d292b32b87a9ca178b4aad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,486 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad2b…f091backed Yes | 62c | 6,817$4,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 37c | 5,959$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,234.23 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes | 52c | 1,337$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.58 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…f88abacked No | 48c | 850$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 38c | 587.51$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4f…3690backed No | 48c | 419.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Yes | 54c | 399.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 40c | 399.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed No | 46c | 359.22$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…82babacked Yes | 64c | 235.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 36c | 232.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 76c | 200.7$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 36c | 189.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…e850backed No | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 53c | 158.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…a144backed Yes | 67c | 158.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…99dcbacked No | 46c | 124.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…ae6fbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 90.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…aab2backed Yes | 64c | 79.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…6ab0backed No | 42c | 70.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…af5dbacked No | 45c | 55.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed No | 46c | 54.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…3077backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 57c | 40.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 38c | 39.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1133…16a8backed No | 67c | 37.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 46c | 32.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.45per pick | 44cpaid | +138%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 54c | 28.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…476abacked Yes | 60c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…1b8fbacked Yes | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…e02cbacked No | 47c | 21.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3767…5e7cbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…4a7fbacked Yes | 63c | 16.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)Caio Borralho won
- Will Caio Borralho win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Reinier de Ridder win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.