TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jim Millerof Jim Miller, Jared Gordon
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,148,345
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,375,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,148,345 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Jared Gordon72c702,481$508,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508,578.287454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Jim Miller28c156,798$43,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,894.492630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Jim Miller27c148,529$40,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108,426.112755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Jim Miller28c89,500$25,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,439.975632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Jim Miller27c76,137$20,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,579.819154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Jim Miller27c75,996$20,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,477.149240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Jim Miller28c52,837$14,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,042.610035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e1…ec43backed Jim Miller30c40,237$12,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,063.35862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Jim Miller28c28,346$7,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,438.474847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Jim Miller28c22,680$6,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,335.714558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Jared Gordon73c20,000$14,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,569.027656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Jim Miller28c20,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,399.993943.6%17 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Jared Gordon72c18,505$13,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,323.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Jared Gordon70c17,958$12,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,570.411657.8%67 W · 49 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Jim Miller28c15,997$4,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,485.6414551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Jim Miller29c15,554$4,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,076.5528849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Jim Miller28c12,939$3,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,324.7215444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…81eabacked Jared Gordon0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Jim Miller28c8,064$2,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,805.922948.3%14 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Jim Miller30c6,505$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,533.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8982…59fbbacked Jared Gordon71c5,634$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0006055%33 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Jim Miller28c5,600$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0326132.8%20 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Jared Gordon72c5,539$3,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,988.3811554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Jim Miller28c4,454$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,215.88940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Jim Miller27c4,237$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,093.4410255.9%57 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Jim Miller28c4,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,879.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+107.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Jared Gordon70c3,811$2,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,658.0126743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Jim Miller29c3,177$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.242564%16 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+48.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Jim Miller28c3,026$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,178.631855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Jared Gordon2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Jared Gordon70c3,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Jim Miller28c2,881$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.0729133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Jared Gordon71c2,685$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.084957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Jim Miller29c2,680$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.5853956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Jared Gordon73c2,500$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8255044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Jim Miller29c2,477$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.9226140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Jim Miller30c2,150$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Jared Gordon72c2,049$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.0510546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Jared Gordon72c2,000$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.948851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Jim Miller31c1,999$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.3536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jim Miller27c1,873$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.7833132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed Jared Gordon70c1,810$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.151457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Jared Gordon71c1,732$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.1210664.2%68 W · 38 L+13.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Jared Gordon73c1,500$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09530964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x230a…9857backed Jared Gordon72c1,500$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Jared Gordon73c1,500$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0953545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Jim Miller28c1,453$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.2842054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Jared Gordon72c1,367$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.7911761.5%72 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Jim Miller28c1,250$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90013735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Jared Gordon70c1,190$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dad…1d41backed Jared Gordon72c1,111$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc5c5…5dccbacked Jim Miller29c1,111$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Jim Miller30c1,107$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.193759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Jared Gordon72c1,105$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.568851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Jim Miller27c1,045$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.0427448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Jared Gordon69c1,040$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.62548%12 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Jared Gordon69c1,035$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.21757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f8…b501backed Jim Miller29c1,034$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.481250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…4d70backed Jim Miller30c1,017$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.491850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b02…7939backed Jared Gordon72c1,001$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c56…4d0abacked Jared Gordon1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Jared Gordon71c1,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Jared Gordon73c1,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7306142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Jared Gordon69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69017752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Jim Miller30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7008461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Jim Miller28c999.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.992937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99eb…0464backed Jim Miller28c999.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+101%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Jim Miller28c888$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.3623850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Jared Gordon71c871.42$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.716953.6%37 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cf…7188backed Jared Gordon70c825$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.51942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Jim Miller28c802$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.447128.2%20 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7358…1d32backed Jared Gordon76c792.86$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6007647.4%36 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed7a…3119backed Jared Gordon72c781.71$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Jared Gordon72c781.14$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.4215348.4%74 W · 79 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c27…40bfbacked Jared Gordon72c772.62$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f2…5bf6backed Jared Gordon72c767.64$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed Jared Gordon72c753$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Jared Gordon72c720$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.45151%26 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Jared Gordon69c720$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.89247.8%44 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc8…6655backed Jim Miller29c714$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.941258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd75…02f9backed Jim Miller28c712.02$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.023748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Jim Miller28c700$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5046732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Jim Miller31c695$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.553315.2%5 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd8c…f75abacked Jared Gordon72c694.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Jared Gordon72c694.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Jim Miller29c689.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.6614237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed99…2677backed Jared Gordon72c684.72$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4935461.1%33 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e91…4e8bbacked Jim Miller30c580.08$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.387631.6%24 W · 52 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Jared Gordon72c575$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf5f…b574backed Jared Gordon70c571.43$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006262.9%39 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Jared Gordon72c550$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3961838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Jared Gordon70c548.95$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.72450%12 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e17…2301backed Jim Miller29c517.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.243132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Jared Gordon70c502.98$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.195349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Jim Miller28c500$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36013636%49 W · 87 L-13.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Jared Gordon65c500$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.3716746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Jared Gordon72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3603655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Jim Miller30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+71.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Jared Gordon70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35035664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Jim Miller29c479.31$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.316339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.