TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Venezuelaof Japan, Venezuela
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,447,316

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,447,316 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 758 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Venezuela37c439,092$162,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276,546.561,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Japan62c231,632$142,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,913.057753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Japan63c193,463$121,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,337.2353150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Venezuela38c150,000$57,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,999.8431149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Japan61c98,777$60,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,172.4631039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Venezuela47c56,166$26,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,869.495244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Japan62c50,000$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,0002437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Venezuela37c49,997$18,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,497.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Japan63c49,641$31,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,264.5714953%79 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2e…1519backed Japan63c40,000$25,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,2001070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Japan62c39,913$24,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,566.271,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Venezuela37c37,127$13,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,421.062254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Venezuela36c34,223$12,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,759.7746547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2f…aaf8backed Venezuela33c33,538$11,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,534.854940.8%20 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed Japan29c23,913$6,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,942.4110930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Japan63c17,486$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,00059549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Venezuela62c14,833$9,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,708.315550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Venezuela38c14,000$5,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,6803554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Venezuela37c13,188$4,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,308.4111456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Venezuela36c12,542$4,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,027.148464.3%54 W · 30 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Venezuela39c12,000$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,359.8177053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Japan44c10,970$4,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,778.5421842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Venezuela26c10,806$2,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,025.0616725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Japan64c10,534$6,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,741.835149%25 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Venezuela37c10,271$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,470.897353.4%39 W · 34 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa392…1415backed Japan64c10,200$6,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,505.522259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Japan62c8,000$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,960425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Venezuela37c8,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,039.981752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Venezuela40c7,994$3,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,796.328247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4712…29ddbacked Japan77c7,944$6,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,079.49955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8747…fbfbbacked Venezuela38c7,901$3,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,898.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58ae…5be9backed Japan54c7,820$4,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,226.3940%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Japan56c7,451$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,149.5730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1f…4084backed Japan63c7,233$4,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,557.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4b…03d6backed Japan26c6,576$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,73030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Venezuela39c6,509$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,990.484049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34b…6118backed Venezuela48c6,492$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,392.443100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Japan62c6,354$3,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,910.4332152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Japan63c6,351$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.1320548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed Venezuela38c6,200$2,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Japan57c5,781$3,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,267.6623036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82cf…3d55backed Venezuela42c5,406$2,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,146.363455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x066e…6f56backed Japan64c5,275$3,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,375.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Japan50c5,206$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580.2746239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Japan35c5,094$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.9396133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Venezuela37c5,000$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.9844749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Venezuela38c5,000$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.946855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Japan62c4,975$3,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,062.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Venezuela39c4,510$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,756.414459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Venezuela38c4,251$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.426058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa206…ab03backed Japan60c4,209$2,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.111233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…af24backed Japan6c4,022$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.7940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fbb…3f66backed Japan52c4,000$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.931070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5395…fdccbacked Japan20c4,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-49%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Japan38c3,929$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.188644.2%38 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6061…cddebacked Japan63c3,768$2,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.142948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4edc…274fbacked Japan65c3,681$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,385.7730%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Venezuela39c3,674$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250.42763%17 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Japan34c3,669$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9cb…bdcdbacked Japan62c3,568$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.141526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-56.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Japan36c3,336$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.687753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Venezuela22c3,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.949021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa842…ab57backed Venezuela21c2,935$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,306.55771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick36cpaid+79.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ef4…186cbacked Venezuela44c2,878$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed Japan76c2,824$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.48650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc875…ff98backed Japan63c2,700$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Japan45c2,677$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Japan63c2,649$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6692548%12 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Venezuela42c2,628$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.3513441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ed…a6c8backed Japan62c2,624$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.95540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Venezuela39c2,590$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.5719053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ec…21a0backed Japan47c2,575$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…42d8backed Venezuela39c2,571$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b0f…014cbacked Japan19c2,524$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Japan37c2,507$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.0810353.4%55 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Japan20c2,506$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.93743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5000…02a3backed Japan2c2,500$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4280%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Venezuela56c2,480$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.473250%16 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Japan62c2,442$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Japan49c2,422$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.78,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Japan59c2,387$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef1…352ebacked Venezuela27c2,269$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,657.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+271.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Japan62c2,181$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Japan15c2,160$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.86524.6%16 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x497a…650fbacked Venezuela28c2,118$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.189846.9%46 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Japan37c2,077$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.395944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Japan37c1,931$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.737750.6%39 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57cb…58b4backed Venezuela45c1,883$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Japan61c1,803$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9913345.9%61 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Venezuela37c1,800$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.984555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ad…915dbacked Japan64c1,734$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Japan62c1,694$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.281136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Japan57c1,659$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.2514039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe363…c894backed Venezuela57c1,657$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.771963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Venezuela36c1,650$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.368151.9%42 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…a8f8backed Japan61c1,643$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Japan62c1,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013461.9%83 W · 51 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b55…507abacked Japan68c1,612$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.97650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d66…22d1backed Japan62c1,600$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Japan63c1,587$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.