UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1a762ca5e471c50a67839511bb7c0cb1bafbc9c83e0bf7793cb44ba0e082cf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,660 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 61c | 1,679$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.71 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 38c | 1,457$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.99 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 46c | 614.73$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.46 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff47…db5ebacked No | 42c | 461$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…33b6backed No | 42c | 414$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e8…4aa6backed No | 41c | 402$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…2341backed No | 41c | 391$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…aefabacked No | 41c | 344$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…0b39backed No | 42c | 342$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…0640backed No | 42c | 340$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…4222backed Yes | 59c | 327$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…dc89backed Yes | 59c | 322$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…f2f3backed No | 41c | 317$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 43c | 310$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…63d5backed No | 42c | 309$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…bad9backed Yes | 59c | 293$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…d62bbacked Yes | 59c | 288$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023f…6d32backed Yes | 58c | 285$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…56f4backed Yes | 58c | 281$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b771backed No | 42c | 276$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…1fa1backed Yes | 58c | 273$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…43dcbacked Yes | 58c | 265$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d2…21bdbacked No | 42c | 263$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…eff5backed Yes | 58c | 255$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f2…ccddbacked Yes | 59c | 237$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d1…c910backed No | 41c | 236$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a89…7e3cbacked Yes | 58c | 234$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…815fbacked Yes | 59c | 223$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…4fc6backed Yes | 58c | 213$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcd…167dbacked Yes | 58c | 203$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdb…364cbacked Yes | 58c | 203$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…8e2fbacked Yes | 58c | 193$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 56c | 107.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed No | 45c | 67.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 32c | 63.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…b88ebacked Yes | 60c | 59.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…aab2backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…95f9backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…8c66backed Yes | 55c | 35.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…21f4backed Yes | 60c | 33.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Gillian Robertson vs. Amanda Lemos (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)Gillian Robertson won
- Will Amanda Lemos win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Gillian Robertson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.