UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48f190750df5d70fd4772606a9257bcf19a77797374bbf0bc6dfe5e4174e4af6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hecher Sosaof Luan Lacerda, Hecher Sosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $344,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,843 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Luan Lacerda | 37c | 65,959$24,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,404.84 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Hecher Sosa | 63c | 36,101$22,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,357.31 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Hecher Sosa | 63c | 34,583$21,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,795.71 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Luan Lacerda | 37c | 20,000$7,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,400 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Hecher Sosa | 54c | 14,851$8,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,782.58 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hecher Sosa | 63c | 14,065$8,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,223.07 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Luan Lacerda | 45c | 11,980$5,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,384.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Luan Lacerda | 48c | 10,432$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.48 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Luan Lacerda | 36c | 9,580$3,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,448.85 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Luan Lacerda | 37c | 8,000$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Luan Lacerda | 35c | 7,432$2,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,564.43 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Luan Lacerda | 32c | 6,738$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.93 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…9742backed Hecher Sosa | 66c | 6,000$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Hecher Sosa | 63c | 5,878$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Hecher Sosa | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.93 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Luan Lacerda | 37c | 4,774$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.46 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hecher Sosa | 63c | 4,276$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.96 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Hecher Sosa | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.95 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Hecher Sosa | 69c | 3,431$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.31 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…aedfbacked Hecher Sosa | 67c | 3,199$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hecher Sosa | 62c | 3,025$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.46 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Luan Lacerda | 63c | 2,862$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.8 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…f7adbacked Luan Lacerda | 37c | 2,855$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.86 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Luan Lacerda | 34c | 2,696$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.64 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…ff76backed Luan Lacerda | 2c | 2,696$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…b7f0backed Hecher Sosa | 64c | 2,500$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Luan Lacerda | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Luan Lacerda | 33c | 2,434$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.24 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Luan Lacerda | 33c | 2,227$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.5 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Hecher Sosa | 50c | 2,003$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.32 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Hecher Sosa | 58c | 1,983$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.66 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Luan Lacerda | 32c | 1,869$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.65 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Luan Lacerda | 38c | 1,804$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.11 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Hecher Sosa | 63c | 1,712$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.63 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Hecher Sosa | 68c | 1,594$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Hecher Sosa | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Hecher Sosa | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Luan Lacerda | 32c | 1,470$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…724fbacked Hecher Sosa | 70c | 1,450$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Luan Lacerda | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Hecher Sosa | 62c | 1,313$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.94 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Hecher Sosa | 51c | 1,306$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.11 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Hecher Sosa | 65c | 1,259$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.44 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Luan Lacerda | 33c | 1,240$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Luan Lacerda | 36c | 1,223$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.3 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Luan Lacerda | 38c | 1,200$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da3…5a49backed Hecher Sosa | 67c | 1,175$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Hecher Sosa | 63c | 1,123$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.66 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Luan Lacerda | 38c | 1,105$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…d703backed Luan Lacerda | 46c | 1,091$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Hecher Sosa | 70c | 1,086$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.84 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Luan Lacerda | 47c | 1,081$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.07 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hecher Sosa | 50c | 1,018$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.59 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6482backed Hecher Sosa | 67c | 900.05$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.05 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…0b70backed Luan Lacerda | 42c | 899.99$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Hecher Sosa | 58c | 864.62$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.07 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Luan Lacerda | 36c | 833.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…34e4backed Hecher Sosa | 62c | 824.89$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Luan Lacerda | 34c | 794.12$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed Hecher Sosa | 68c | 784.67$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…f158backed Hecher Sosa | 67c | 746.7$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f64…6ddfbacked Hecher Sosa | 64c | 745.87$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Luan Lacerda | 36c | 687.99$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Luan Lacerda | 33c | 680$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.4 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Hecher Sosa | 60c | 668.39$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.39 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Luan Lacerda | 42c | 648.21$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.66 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b39…a428backed Hecher Sosa | 65c | 648$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Hecher Sosa | 67c | 605$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Luan Lacerda | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…8b39backed Luan Lacerda | 42c | 595.4$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.77 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Hecher Sosa | 57c | 550$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.82 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…b12dbacked Luan Lacerda | 37c | 533.59$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Hecher Sosa | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Hecher Sosa | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Hecher Sosa | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Luan Lacerda | 32c | 500$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…2101backed Hecher Sosa | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Luan Lacerda | 37c | 499.97$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Luan Lacerda | 32c | 491.06$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Luan Lacerda | 35c | 490.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Luan Lacerda | 36c | 480.84$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.77 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Luan Lacerda | 37c | 471$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.27 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Hecher Sosa | 63c | 470.97$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.26 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Luan Lacerda | 37c | 470.32$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -82%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8a…64b7backed Hecher Sosa | 68c | 470.25$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Luan Lacerda | 34c | 446.57$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Hecher Sosa | 57c | 439.82$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Luan Lacerda | 34c | 438.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.91 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Hecher Sosa | 55c | 436.85$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.63 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…884ebacked Luan Lacerda | 11c | 433.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Hecher Sosa | 55c | 408$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.84 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…504ebacked Hecher Sosa | 67c | 390.54$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Hecher Sosa | 58c | 366$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Luan Lacerda | 37c | 361.1$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4240…279ebacked Hecher Sosa | 64c | 351.36$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Hecher Sosa | 57c | 335$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…211ebacked Hecher Sosa | 68c | 331.04$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Luan Lacerda | 32c | 328.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Hecher Sosa | 69c | 327.23$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Hecher Sosa | 65c | 325.37$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.