TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Tyrell Fortuneof Marcin Tybura, Tyrell Fortune
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,349,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,614,433

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,349,729 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa38a…821dbacked Tyrell Fortune62c101,165$62,223 inWon+$38,941.8610546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Tyrell Fortune54c100,000$54,000 inWon+$45,999.857245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Marcin Tybura31c69,175$21,454 inLost-$21,453.614558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Marcin Tybura46c67,919$31,212 inLost-$31,211.9635253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b97…5e12backed Tyrell Fortune1c67,608$676 inWon+$66,932.371586.7%13 W · 2 L+6.0wins+0.40per pick47cpaid+914%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x71b4…f97ebacked Tyrell Fortune1c50,000$500 inWon+$49,5005851.7%30 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+192.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf97b…d778backed Tyrell Fortune2c50,000$800 inWon+$49,2001100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+6,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Marcin Tybura47c30,560$14,260 inLost-$14,260.362425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Marcin Tybura45c27,781$12,502 inLost-$12,501.6619154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Tyrell Fortune54c26,839$14,493 inWon+$12,345.993339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Marcin Tybura46c23,584$10,859 inLost-$10,858.557528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Marcin Tybura17c22,102$3,685 inLost-$3,684.578434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Tyrell Fortune79c21,777$17,297 inWon+$4,480.2729151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Marcin Tybura0c20,100$33 inLost-$331735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Marcin Tybura0c20,018$84 inLost-$84.493636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Tyrell Fortune54c20,000$10,800 inWon+$9,20011554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Marcin Tybura46c19,816$9,067 inLost-$9,067.173043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Marcin Tybura2c15,819$375 inLost-$375.4916745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Tyrell Fortune76c14,425$10,944 inWon+$3,481.084548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Marcin Tybura10c13,905$1,447 inLost-$1,447.437754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed Tyrell Fortune28c12,594$3,526 inWon+$9,068.671952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Marcin Tybura4c12,518$543 inLost-$543.323743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Tyrell Fortune55c12,000$6,600 inWon+$5,4007656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Marcin Tybura46c10,920$5,023 inLost-$5,023.210035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Marcin Tybura47c10,000$4,700 inLost-$4,699.9710542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Tyrell Fortune55c9,093$5,000 inWon+$4,093.3316951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Marcin Tybura3c9,000$254 inLost-$254.12100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79fb…c230backed Tyrell Fortune3c9,000$254 inWon+$8,745.88728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick5cpaid+515.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Marcin Tybura45c8,388$3,790 inLost-$3,789.5728849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Marcin Tybura9c8,084$695 inLost-$695.1413453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Tyrell Fortune69c7,439$5,140 inWon+$2,298.777452.7%39 W · 35 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Tyrell Fortune55c6,000$3,312 inWon+$2,688.15736.8%21 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Marcin Tybura46c6,000$2,760 inLost-$2,76012052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Tyrell Fortune55c5,091$2,800 inWon+$2,290.914981.6%40 W · 9 L+10.4wins+0.21per pick60cpaid+43.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x925d…ca00backed Tyrell Fortune54c5,050$2,728 inWon+$2,3221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Tyrell Fortune12c4,774$578 inWon+$4,196.355451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Marcin Tybura52c4,751$2,481 inLost-$2,480.9935848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Tyrell Fortune53c4,718$2,500 inWon+$2,217.3714551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Tyrell Fortune54c4,350$2,349 inWon+$2,000.981758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+33.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Marcin Tybura45c4,350$1,957 inLost-$1,957.38220.7%17 W · 65 L-12.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0453…4176backed Marcin Tybura1c4,343$43 inLost-$43.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Tyrell Fortune53c4,236$2,245 inWon+$1,990.9226743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Marcin Tybura22c4,000$860 inLost-$86020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x868c…56b2backed Marcin Tybura1c3,427$34 inLost-$34.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd499…9e2bbacked Tyrell Fortune54c3,300$1,782 inWon+$1,5181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Marcin Tybura46c3,000$1,380 inLost-$1,3803735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x866a…1513backed Tyrell Fortune54c2,800$1,512 inWon+$1,2881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1f…49e6backed Tyrell Fortune55c2,687$1,478 inWon+$1,208.993259.4%19 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x582b…8d9fbacked Marcin Tybura1c2,600$26 inLost-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Marcin Tybura50c2,500$1,250 inLost-$1,2509949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Marcin Tybura22c2,349$511 inLost-$510.781540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Tyrell Fortune54c2,312$1,245 inWon+$1,067.334131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x676b…6dc2backed Tyrell Fortune54c2,000$1,080 inWon+$9201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed Marcin Tybura46c2,000$920 inLost-$9209241.3%38 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Tyrell Fortune1c2,000$20 inWon+$1,98016156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Tyrell Fortune53c2,000$1,060 inWon+$939.986246.8%29 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9298…9e5bbacked Tyrell Fortune54c2,000$1,084 inWon+$915.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed Marcin Tybura46c1,999$920 inLost-$919.541741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Tyrell Fortune54c1,948$1,048 inWon+$900.1114543.4%63 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Tyrell Fortune55c1,800$990 inWon+$8105250%26 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ac…61b7backed Tyrell Fortune54c1,800$972 inWon+$8281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Tyrell Fortune42c1,620$685 inWon+$934.616048.3%29 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Tyrell Fortune54c1,600$864 inWon+$735.9730964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c14…68f3backed Tyrell Fortune2c1,500$30 inWon+$1,470520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+900%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed Tyrell Fortune55c1,500$825 inWon+$6756354%34 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a7…569ebacked Tyrell Fortune73c1,488$1,089 inWon+$398.99757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Marcin Tybura24c1,461$349 inLost-$348.962744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Tyrell Fortune66c1,320$875 inWon+$444.773246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Tyrell Fortune1c1,300$19 inWon+$1,281166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick1cpaid+327.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Marcin Tybura47c1,279$600 inLost-$6003941%16 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c31…5240backed Tyrell Fortune55c1,273$700 inWon+$572.738640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Tyrell Fortune55c1,250$688 inWon+$562.525251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc0…c9e8backed Marcin Tybura8c1,250$100 inLost-$1003943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Marcin Tybura23c1,100$248 inLost-$248.392450%12 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf584…2497backed Marcin Tybura2c1,100$27 inLost-$274143.9%18 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Marcin Tybura46c1,086$499 inLost-$499.451650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Marcin Tybura46c1,078$500 inLost-$5008650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Tyrell Fortune64c1,048$676 inWon+$372.175959.3%35 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Tyrell Fortune39c1,042$410 inWon+$632.0716746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tyrell Fortune53c1,038$550 inWon+$487.578848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Marcin Tybura20c1,036$205 inLost-$204.831952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7131…2858backed Marcin Tybura1c1,028$10 inLost-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9541…3b71backed Marcin Tybura47c1,000$470 inLost-$470450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Tyrell Fortune55c1,000$550 inWon+$4505151%26 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Marcin Tybura14c1,000$140 inLost-$14028043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x136d…62ffbacked Tyrell Fortune54c990.74$535 inWon+$455.74650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1776…e557backed Tyrell Fortune62c962.76$597 inWon+$365.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Tyrell Fortune54c921.89$498 inWon+$424.074072.5%29 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Marcin Tybura47c912$429 inLost-$428.645362.3%33 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Tyrell Fortune45c879.75$400 inWon+$479.751241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Marcin Tybura46c869.57$400 inLost-$4004639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Marcin Tybura33c850.75$281 inLost-$280.752240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Tyrell Fortune70c849.94$596 inWon+$253.494843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Tyrell Fortune53c848.3$450 inWon+$398.717158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Tyrell Fortune53c820.38$435 inWon+$385.587244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Marcin Tybura56c807.76$452 inLost-$451.923852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Tyrell Fortune53c804.48$426 inWon+$378.1110949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Tyrell Fortune70c801.83$561 inWon+$240.356045%27 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Tyrell Fortune55c800$440 inWon+$3606254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Tyrell Fortune54c777$420 inWon+$357.4223850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.