UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8dfe4aa290ebe683fca569f1ad254ee74c216e16c79d774f5e7504a3c7f37a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Renato Moicanoof Renato Moicano, Chris Duncan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $972,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,037,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $972,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 680 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Chris Duncan | 57c | 330,080$187,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187,665.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Renato Moicano | 43c | 239,064$103,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135,888.47 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Renato Moicano | 43c | 100,000$43,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,999.85 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…8e33backed Chris Duncan | 56c | 87,210$48,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,585.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Chris Duncan | 58c | 60,807$35,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,362.2 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Renato Moicano | 46c | 60,192$27,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,718.51 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Renato Moicano | 43c | 45,823$19,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,098.43 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Chris Duncan | 52c | 41,643$21,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,602.7 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Chris Duncan | 55c | 31,300$17,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,276.1 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Chris Duncan | 57c | 30,396$17,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,337.28 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Renato Moicano | 41c | 28,232$11,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,657 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Chris Duncan | 57c | 21,243$12,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,146.03 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Renato Moicano | 44c | 16,443$7,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,222.66 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Chris Duncan | 1c | 15,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Renato Moicano | 43c | 13,895$6,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,886.47 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Renato Moicano | 41c | 13,072$5,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,768.55 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Renato Moicano | 41c | 10,994$4,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,436.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Chris Duncan | 57c | 10,914$6,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,171.05 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29cc…3c29backed Renato Moicano | 44c | 10,200$4,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,705.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…0b74backed Renato Moicano | 44c | 9,884$4,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,534.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Renato Moicano | 40c | 9,713$3,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,827.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Renato Moicano | 44c | 9,039$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,039.57 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Renato Moicano | 44c | 8,700$3,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,872 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…52c9backed Chris Duncan | 56c | 7,256$4,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…99acbacked Renato Moicano | 44c | 6,843$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,831.9 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Renato Moicano | 41c | 6,831$2,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,030.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Renato Moicano | 45c | 5,981$2,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,289.55 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Renato Moicano | 54c | 5,952$3,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,746.64 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Renato Moicano | 78c | 5,931$4,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.13 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Renato Moicano | 58c | 5,912$3,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.22 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5d6dbacked Renato Moicano | 44c | 5,682$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,183.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Renato Moicano | 43c | 5,409$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,058.03 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…fb0fbacked Chris Duncan | 48c | 5,103$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,433.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Renato Moicano | 44c | 5,048$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.1 | 277 | 43%119 W · 158 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…e90fbacked Chris Duncan | 28c | 5,019$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Chris Duncan | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Chris Duncan | 57c | 4,763$2,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,715.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Renato Moicano | 43c | 4,655$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,630.18 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…041ebacked Renato Moicano | 41c | 4,580$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…7d71backed Renato Moicano | 44c | 4,575$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,562 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Chris Duncan | 21c | 4,550$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.56 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Renato Moicano | 45c | 4,489$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…b926backed Chris Duncan | 60c | 4,438$2,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,662.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…404abacked Chris Duncan | 60c | 4,417$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…fd9dbacked Chris Duncan | 63c | 4,371$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Renato Moicano | 43c | 4,370$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.55 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…74d9backed Renato Moicano | 41c | 4,223$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…eeb1backed Chris Duncan | 61c | 4,127$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,509.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Renato Moicano | 45c | 3,868$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Chris Duncan | 65c | 3,723$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.16 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Renato Moicano | 40c | 3,364$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.27 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…070dbacked Chris Duncan | 56c | 3,176$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Renato Moicano | 42c | 3,138$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.88 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Chris Duncan | 55c | 3,096$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.88 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b8…0716backed Renato Moicano | 41c | 2,946$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Renato Moicano | 42c | 2,632$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.46 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda26…8fefbacked Renato Moicano | 45c | 2,558$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.7wins | -0.34per pick | 55cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Chris Duncan | 59c | 2,551$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.04 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Chris Duncan | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94a…acf6backed Renato Moicano | 41c | 2,353$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Renato Moicano | 41c | 2,304$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Renato Moicano | 43c | 2,300$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.81 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…9b91backed Chris Duncan | 57c | 2,247$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…13aebacked Renato Moicano | 45c | 2,169$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Renato Moicano | 43c | 2,105$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.91 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…7188backed Chris Duncan | 55c | 2,091$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Chris Duncan | 59c | 2,071$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.15 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Chris Duncan | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Chris Duncan | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Chris Duncan | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.8 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…49e6backed Chris Duncan | 56c | 1,937$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.98 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Chris Duncan | 48c | 1,935$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Chris Duncan | 64c | 1,918$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.26 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Chris Duncan | 55c | 1,837$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.98 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Renato Moicano | 44c | 1,800$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Chris Duncan | 62c | 1,727$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.98 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Renato Moicano | 39c | 1,659$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.81 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Chris Duncan | 10c | 1,579$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Chris Duncan | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.96 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Renato Moicano | 45c | 1,499$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.44 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…68d7backed Chris Duncan | 37c | 1,445$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.34 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed Chris Duncan | 57c | 1,415$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.76 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…ffbebacked Renato Moicano | 44c | 1,312$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…6ea2backed Renato Moicano | 39c | 1,269$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.47 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Renato Moicano | 40c | 1,269$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.25 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Chris Duncan | 57c | 1,257$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.33 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed Chris Duncan | 57c | 1,200$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.3 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Renato Moicano | 36c | 1,200$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.97 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed Renato Moicano | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.92 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Chris Duncan | 55c | 1,168$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.18 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…d8fbbacked Renato Moicano | 44c | 1,098$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.98 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daa…c9dabacked Renato Moicano | 44c | 1,089$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…b56bbacked Renato Moicano | 38c | 1,070$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.52 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Chris Duncan | 57c | 1,050$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.97 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Renato Moicano | 41c | 1,040$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.9 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Renato Moicano | 38c | 1,039$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.29 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…26bbbacked Renato Moicano | 45c | 1,008$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Renato Moicano | 62c | 1,005$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Chris Duncan | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Chris Duncan | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Chris Duncan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Renato Moicano win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.