UFC · resolved market
Will Chris Duncan win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cca847979a17ef6a3347f1c72d3ea57fee614639f4789a570d2c6f52ae52b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 58c | 1,087$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.48 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…ce52backed Yes | 42c | 574.52$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Yes | 41c | 310.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 59c | 243.9$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 39c | 204.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 61c | 194.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 59c | 178.04$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…4af3backed Yes | 41c | 164.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 38c | 152.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 63c | 139.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…ca77backed Yes | 42c | 133.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 42c | 113.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…eeb1backed Yes | 35c | 96.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Yes | 42c | 86.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes | 42c | 86.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 57c | 46.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edd…a867backed Yes | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked No | 62c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…077dbacked No | 62c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 62c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfe…5979backed No | 72c | 32.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…2bdcbacked No | 62c | 26.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed No | 61c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…b626backed Yes | 42c | 25.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chris Duncan win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)Renato Moicano won
- Will Renato Moicano win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.