UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1e7c8ae2faace6a314a1c76899a5d9e4f223b9102ab41f20165cfd9b993ce16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 55c | 6,190$3,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,788.12 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 45c | 4,517$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.59 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Over | 45c | 2,152$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Under | 54c | 1,052$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.11 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Under | 56c | 997.71$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 46c | 648.35$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Under | 54c | 380.23$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.61 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 371.92$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.75 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Under | 56c | 262.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Over | 46c | 215.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x339b…7766backed Over | 47c | 206.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 43c | 162.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f77…f668backed Over | 44c | 153.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x921e…1e09backed Over | 46c | 141.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 140.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…6244backed Over | 48c | 110.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…7ca1backed Over | 49c | 110.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…d2f5backed Under | 57c | 102.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Over | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 54c | 92.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Under | 55c | 70.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1142…e972backed Over | 45c | 67.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…1f04backed Over | 45c | 67.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b8…6e4cbacked Over | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked Under | 57c | 44.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Over | 46c | 41.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…5ea9backed Over | 49c | 36.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…4bc7backed Over | 49c | 36.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed Under | 54c | 27.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Over | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Under | 56c | 24.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd2…38d1backed Under | 57c | 22.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)Renato Moicano won
- Will Chris Duncan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Renato Moicano win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.