TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Flyers vs. Islanders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flyersof Flyers, Islanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,019,070
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,158,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,019,070 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 946 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Islanders58c845,052$488,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488,642.231,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Flyers43c554,195$236,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317,581.9616442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Flyers41c347,822$144,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203,812.0351550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Islanders58c140,742$81,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,630.440351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f1…c5f8backed Flyers76c133,140$101,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,953.61450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Flyers42c81,880$34,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,490.6667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Islanders46c76,655$35,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,056.0648545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Flyers42c68,072$28,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,487.975639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Flyers61c38,477$23,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,838.991,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Islanders52c33,483$17,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,288.351,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Flyers41c31,863$13,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,799.2948549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Islanders43c31,299$13,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,373.7527448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Islanders57c24,670$14,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,061.8536748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Flyers42c23,940$10,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,885.27737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Flyers62c23,895$14,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.9441850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Flyers43c21,328$9,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,259.0843548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Islanders57c20,140$11,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,479.9740356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Flyers42c20,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,6004650%23 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Islanders58c17,299$10,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,114.4313252.3%69 W · 63 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf984…5098backed Islanders58c17,110$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010647.2%50 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Flyers42c17,000$7,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,944.510146.5%47 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…9a1fbacked Islanders57c16,842$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,600728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Islanders46c15,636$7,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,230.2251045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Flyers43c15,050$6,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,650.989751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Islanders59c15,000$8,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,85012838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Flyers76c14,672$11,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,521.284450%22 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Islanders58c12,858$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50037754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Islanders58c12,858$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50019759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Flyers41c12,040$4,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,103.62347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Islanders58c12,023$6,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,944.6218853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Flyers42c12,000$5,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,989.881,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Flyers41c11,796$4,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,939.52,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Flyers41c11,340$4,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,690.325259.6%31 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed Flyers42c10,876$4,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,307.851435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed Flyers42c10,271$4,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,957.433333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Islanders57c10,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.8912950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Flyers41c10,000$4,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,879.8819353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Flyers76c9,753$7,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.625350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Flyers43c9,472$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,391.4561950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Islanders57c9,408$5,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,396.7514062.1%87 W · 53 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Islanders57c9,266$5,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,281.792846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Islanders58c8,548$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00033450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Islanders59c8,135$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.743844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Flyers43c8,131$3,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,634.8812654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Islanders13c7,939$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.5532451.2%166 W · 158 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Flyers43c7,402$3,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,233.2260249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Islanders57c7,323$4,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,17485250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Islanders56c7,307$4,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,105.1611553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Flyers76c7,174$5,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.8289636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Flyers41c7,065$2,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,148.8959450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Flyers42c7,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,059.9926058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Islanders58c6,920$4,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,013.614954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Flyers41c6,840$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,035.62470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe998…b7f0backed Flyers42c6,768$2,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,925.642846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Flyers43c6,666$2,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,799.6289249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Flyers42c6,349$2,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,677.143450%17 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Flyers41c6,156$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,632.0738849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Flyers42c6,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,48032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Flyers42c6,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.9927850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Islanders57c5,975$3,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,405.6315949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Flyers42c5,600$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,227.8345749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Islanders58c5,344$3,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,097.611,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Flyers42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Flyers44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80014940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Islanders58c4,500$2,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,62730946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Flyers42c4,452$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,582.385230.8%16 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Flyers75c4,226$3,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.465959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Flyers41c4,199$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,477.5521850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Flyers76c4,183$3,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.191,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Flyers43c4,162$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.265446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Islanders59c4,156$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.3936852.2%192 W · 176 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Islanders17c4,019$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Flyers43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.9939752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ae…6503backed Flyers43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+109.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Islanders57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.981,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Flyers41c4,000$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.922747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Islanders57c3,500$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.983655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Islanders53c3,392$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.2127044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Flyers80c3,144$2,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.861,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Flyers76c3,066$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.781,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Islanders57c3,000$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.9927048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Flyers41c2,862$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.332,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Flyers43c2,791$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.714940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Flyers41c2,500$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47531848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ff…24e3backed Flyers42c2,479$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.573743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Flyers48c2,459$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.3610650%53 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Islanders58c2,414$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Flyers42c2,400$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3924748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2335…eaf2backed Islanders57c2,399$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Islanders24c2,295$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.237047.1%33 W · 37 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Islanders58c2,250$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.3514650%73 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Islanders57c2,230$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.8666552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Flyers42c2,222$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.7686649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Islanders8c2,024$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9260337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Islanders58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Flyers42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Flyers43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14026750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Flyers42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1602958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x931e…e8e8backed Flyers42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1601662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+47.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f4b…bb93backed Islanders59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1804119.5%8 W · 33 L-9.0wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-62.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.