NHL · resolved market
Spread: Islanders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2184915788db50f713c6d1a04807de842ea0335b9589dda258e785b47e5f4623
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Islanders, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88ae…9c62backed Islanders | 36c | 2,998$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Flyers | 64c | 1,642$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Flyers | 66c | 889.39$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Islanders | 7c | 653.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Islanders | 35c | 639.75$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.91 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 13c | 623.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Islanders | 35c | 578.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Islanders | 36c | 539.56$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Flyers | 64c | 479.48$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.63 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Flyers | 64c | 375$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Islanders | 34c | 348.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Islanders | 33c | 329.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…7286backed Islanders | 6c | 290.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Flyers | 63c | 270.27$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Islanders | 37c | 244.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Flyers | 65c | 230$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…7defbacked Islanders | 35c | 196.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Flyers | 72c | 177.61$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flyers | 67c | 175.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Flyers | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Islanders | 34c | 152.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Islanders | 9c | 149.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Flyers | 66c | 148.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Islanders | 34c | 86.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flyers | 66c | 75.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed Flyers | 66c | 69.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Flyers | 65c | 63.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Flyers | 65c | 58.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Islanders | 35c | 54.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flyers | 67c | 52.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flyers | 66c | 51.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Islanders | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Flyers | 66c | 34.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flyers | 66c | 31.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…a4b4backed Flyers | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Flyers | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Flyers | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Flyers | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Flyers | 76c | 20.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flyers | 67c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. IslandersFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.