NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e916999b3ec88e17d601e05f2f57d0c8219dd9f9137646dc66c45d05e1fc22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e65…4994backed Under | 28c | 13,260$3,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,655 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 77c | 5,728$4,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.86 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 8c | 2,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Over | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 74c | 1,936$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.32 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 73c | 1,387$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.49 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Over | 74c | 1,137$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.71 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 72c | 972$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.16 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 75c | 772$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.05 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…58debacked Under | 28c | 718.92$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 72c | 591$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 74c | 340.61$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 72c | 325.88$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 73c | 314.46$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 72c | 208$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…ac64backed Under | 27c | 119.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 72c | 86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 25c | 78.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Over | 75c | 66.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 25c | 61.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…096bbacked Under | 26c | 55.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Over | 74c | 48.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…1b63backed Over | 75c | 40.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bc…ec35backed Under | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Under | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 74c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…af8abacked Over | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +93%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5this page
- Flyers vs. IslandersFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.