TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Charles Johnsonof Bruno Silva, Charles Johnson
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,335,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,335,462 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 423 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Charles Johnson64c400,000$254,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145,516.733842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bruno Silva37c137,065$50,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,048.8610949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Bruno Silva36c109,200$39,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,3129240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Bruno Silva37c75,000$27,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,500.037245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Bruno Silva38c50,000$19,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,999.997841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Charles Johnson32c41,511$13,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,389.9229151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Charles Johnson62c35,564$21,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,606.1135253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Charles Johnson63c30,478$19,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,342.573964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Bruno Silva36c28,080$10,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,108.87534.7%26 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Bruno Silva36c25,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0006238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Bruno Silva36c23,088$8,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,311.662540%10 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bruno Silva36c19,180$6,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,904.814558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7a…8536backed Bruno Silva46c17,449$8,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,017.171030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Charles Johnson16c13,608$2,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,387.438434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bruno Silva37c11,473$4,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,228.5114551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Charles Johnson49c10,862$5,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,503.3215939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe86c…739bbacked Bruno Silva0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9d…7b70backed Bruno Silva0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Charles Johnson61c10,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,899.976850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Bruno Silva36c8,280$2,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,980.793455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bruno Silva45c7,898$3,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,558.6437152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6dc…a4a1backed Bruno Silva2c7,400$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417e…85e4backed Bruno Silva2c7,400$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12290%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d3d…5f66backed Bruno Silva3c7,300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf99e…4d03backed Bruno Silva1c7,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fcd…445ebacked Bruno Silva2c6,750$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Bruno Silva2c6,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Bruno Silva2c6,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Charles Johnson62c5,956$3,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.3810542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Charles Johnson59c5,598$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,298.327452.7%39 W · 35 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Bruno Silva54c5,336$2,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,897.4954056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Bruno Silva40c5,205$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.1316244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05c…66b9backed Bruno Silva1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3846…9742backed Charles Johnson60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25f…b329backed Bruno Silva38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Charles Johnson31c4,598$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.0620954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Bruno Silva39c4,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5606738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23ec…759fbacked Bruno Silva1c4,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef3…a953backed Charles Johnson62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Bruno Silva1c4,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+215.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bruno Silva40c3,723$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.438848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Bruno Silva43c3,524$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Charles Johnson67c3,500$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.526743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Bruno Silva4c3,500$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Bruno Silva40c3,302$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.5515641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bruno Silva38c3,222$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.3628849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Bruno Silva57c3,110$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.3716945.6%77 W · 92 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Bruno Silva41c3,000$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.695151%26 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Bruno Silva39c2,901$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.561850%9 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1071…e39ebacked Bruno Silva6c2,900$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Charles Johnson51c2,752$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.2727448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9d7…a1c9backed Bruno Silva39c2,738$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.82425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Charles Johnson59c2,619$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.9511758.1%68 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bruno Silva39c2,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97511746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Charles Johnson62c2,440$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Bruno Silva3c2,435$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Charles Johnson47c2,378$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.413860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Bruno Silva37c2,334$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.881811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-71.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Charles Johnson59c2,240$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.472050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Bruno Silva40c2,226$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.869746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1277backed Bruno Silva5c2,200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Bruno Silva39c2,140$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.015459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Bruno Silva37c2,100$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77790%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Charles Johnson52c2,013$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.2326552.1%138 W · 127 L+23.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bruno Silva38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Charles Johnson20c1,902$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.6621247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed Bruno Silva5c1,886$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.11837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick16cpaid+52.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf92a…99acbacked Charles Johnson49c1,661$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.712236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Bruno Silva45c1,600$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7206240.3%25 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Bruno Silva1c1,600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Bruno Silva42c1,598$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6713141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Bruno Silva38c1,574$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.1218038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Bruno Silva40c1,500$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.995044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Bruno Silva39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.964337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2256…0386backed Charles Johnson62c1,405$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.927160.6%43 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bruno Silva39c1,370$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.3330039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…4880backed Charles Johnson46c1,333$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.761154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bruno Silva36c1,304$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.629133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Charles Johnson60c1,275$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.246063.3%38 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Charles Johnson7c1,267$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.182347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+57.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Bruno Silva40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb752…767dbacked Bruno Silva42c1,189$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Bruno Silva56c1,182$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.34240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bruno Silva37c1,146$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.19636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Bruno Silva37c1,081$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40018647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Bruno Silva56c1,057$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.942450%12 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Bruno Silva49c1,013$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bruno Silva61c1,003$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.7814929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Charles Johnson60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40010253.9%55 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03de…4bfdbacked Charles Johnson62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3801936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Charles Johnson64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3608650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Charles Johnson61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901580%12 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Bruno Silva37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3706953.6%37 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedea…8b39backed Bruno Silva50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004042.5%17 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe633…4f19backed Charles Johnson62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Charles Johnson63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3702646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea1…f17ebacked Bruno Silva1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Charles Johnson40c988.44$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.698840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Bruno Silva58c967$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.145642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Charles Johnson58c950.31$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.131861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.