MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x425a3294cb0c23814f88f481ecb6e44f5f7401dd884826fdf23faa2e98b2a75b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 47c | 2,778$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.14 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 2,252$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 1,586$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 794.54$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 648$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 15c | 546$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 391.38$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 371.71$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 211.25$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 200.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Atlanta Braves | 22c | 156$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked Atlanta Braves | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 101.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Atlanta Braves | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 92.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 55.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 54.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 44.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 35.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…fcdfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.