MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x048cae732a97eaf715e6cabb538fa471f2764179a6f6aadf1c3b72c80255ab32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 48c | 9,940$4,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,201.44 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed No | 53c | 5,421$2,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,876.43 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 52c | 2,404$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed No | 51c | 1,175$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.95 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 753.82$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.6 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed No | 55c | 727.45$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 706.54$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 50c | 563.64$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.9 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 47c | 497$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.41 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 52c | 480$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 50c | 445$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked No | 50c | 425.6$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 50c | 380.04$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.02 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 52c | 118.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…944dbacked No | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 50c | 108.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…ca43backed No | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 52c | 38.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Bravesthis page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.