MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56b4268200b3a4d206b4afb2302e96e3ced2d9c309469dcae97198c470d1a1a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb43…4201backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 28,413$19,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,602.64 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 25,622$7,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,678.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 11,955$5,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,082.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 7,135$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 5,273$3,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,249.08 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 4,483$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.24 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 2,732$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 2,093$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.71 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 1,830$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 1,003$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.42 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 546.17$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.4 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 462.9$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.23 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 453.74$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.38 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 190$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 166$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 161.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 149.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 217 | 53.9%117 W · 100 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 116.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 22c | 109.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 53c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 104$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Atlanta Braves | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 77.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 68.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 67.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 60.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 58.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Atlanta Braves | 74c | 53.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 51.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Braves | 74c | 50.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 48.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 43.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Atlanta Braves | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 38.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 24.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.