MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6187e3abb2620536d3b203274c45c0ed3e6f4ad3cea4cd66f3e436668f45d4d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 5,416$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,917.73 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 47c | 4,260$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.8 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 53c | 3,768$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.27 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 23c | 1,786$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.04 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.6 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 1,555$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.96 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 1,293$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.65 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 54c | 1,197$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.26 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 60c | 750$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 53c | 577$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.33 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 12c | 424.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 44c | 279.29$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 47c | 212.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 47c | 212$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 21c | 188.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 122.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 119.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Under | 46c | 119.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 47c | 118.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 61c | 111.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 37c | 93.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 48c | 81.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 68.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4453backed Over | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.7wins | -0.31per pick | 58cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 46c | 54.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 48c | 54.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 38.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 62c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 62c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 46c | 32.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 63c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 47c | 23.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.