MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aa5f912124f63bcf4e47b36d116f0746fa8e69adc831db91b97303b337b64b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 51,873$28,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,342.76 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 45c | 50,000$22,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,500 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 4,990$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.88 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 5c | 2,056$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 1,902$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 6c | 1,220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 53c | 735.98$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.91 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 47c | 657.22$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.98 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 525$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 505$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.6 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 54c | 404$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.84 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 306$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Under | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Over | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 46c | 205.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Over | 51c | 196.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 54c | 191.57$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 166$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 128.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 45c | 124.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 122.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 118.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 48c | 106.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b1…2282backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Over | 46c | 92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 22c | 70.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 54c | 61.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 56c | 33.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 56c | 33.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 45c | 23.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 50c | 21.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.