TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,834,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,143,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,834,202 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,888 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa380…21ffbacked Knicks54c2,847,213$1,527,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527,873.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+93.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Knicks55c2,099,582$1,163,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163,661.0772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f0d…6382backed Spurs47c1,858,311$864,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994,129.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Knicks54c1,013,726$543,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543,274.7616841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cff…59dbbacked Spurs45c825,478$371,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454,013.01475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3496…8fc4backed Spurs46c764,328$351,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412,736.931040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks54c649,998$350,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350,999.0818651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Spurs46c600,004$276,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324,002.269745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Spurs46c596,191$272,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323,564.526445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Knicks54c548,000$295,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295,919.992347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Spurs53c536,178$281,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254,638.7410944%48 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Spurs45c510,000$231,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278,30011333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Spurs47c455,370$214,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,346.2487451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs56c381,671$212,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169,495.3285742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad9c…9889backed Spurs51c301,162$153,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147,613.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Spurs47c295,594$138,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156,664.719945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x157e…add7backed Spurs35c273,956$95,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178,071.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+149.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Spurs60c270,861$163,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,713.5526753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Knicks53c245,625$131,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,031.135350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Spurs47c233,246$110,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122,756.321,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Spurs46c231,160$105,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,826.345940.7%24 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5448…1a7bbacked Knicks44c228,915$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+74.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Spurs47c215,000$101,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,95017251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Spurs45c195,633$88,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,399.171,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Knicks53c190,633$100,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,851.5720454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e71…4d7abacked Knicks53c177,687$94,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,174.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Spurs45c174,999$78,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,499.721,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Knicks49c166,008$81,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,795.7564948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Spurs63c161,971$101,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,988.5815274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Knicks32c147,007$47,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,576.3293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95f6…0b51backed Spurs47c143,846$67,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,238.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Knicks55c143,498$78,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,923.7424831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x594d…059dbacked Spurs46c139,815$64,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,500.15887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+63.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc5b…1edcbacked Spurs33c130,303$43,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,303.031250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Knicks50c130,000$65,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,585.2517553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Spurs47c122,221$57,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,777.1314538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Knicks26c120,555$31,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,599.6928056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Spurs46c120,000$54,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,399.953844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…1809backed Spurs64c119,500$76,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,691.724459.1%26 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Spurs47c117,800$55,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,434520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-57.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf32e…441dbacked Spurs79c115,441$90,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,649.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe5…b317backed Knicks54c109,635$59,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,203.132360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Knicks54c101,852$55,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,0009725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa66c…cd67backed Spurs53c92,434$49,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,135.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c28…9e49backed Spurs39c90,008$35,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,752.351942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Knicks53c85,200$45,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,155.9115644.9%70 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27fd…77a8backed Knicks35c80,032$28,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,010.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Spurs46c74,999$34,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,499.7224650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…649fbacked Knicks54c68,022$36,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,731.622343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da4…367ebacked Knicks30c63,405$19,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,139.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+255.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Spurs40c63,274$25,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,738.261369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.38per pick31cpaid+105.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Knicks2c60,138$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.775213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Knicks54c59,210$32,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,060.8762347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Spurs33c58,288$19,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,052.953036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc30e…15a7backed Spurs35c56,304$19,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,744.45650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+136.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59e5…7a2bbacked Spurs71c55,000$38,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,049.966152.5%32 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3535…a775backed Spurs47c51,824$24,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,466.721560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs47c51,147$24,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,881.371,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…bce3backed Spurs46c50,100$23,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,054650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…5e8abacked Spurs47c50,000$23,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,5003770.3%26 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Knicks55c49,008$26,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,725.5861851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f6…15c4backed Spurs51c46,440$23,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,639.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+215%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf689…9d83backed Knicks54c46,296$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Spurs60c45,981$27,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,420.1211738.5%45 W · 72 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Knicks65c45,114$29,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,323.9428241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Knicks54c44,074$23,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,8007342.5%31 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x751d…29e1backed Knicks54c43,433$23,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,453.911145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Spurs47c41,957$19,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,238.2315140.4%61 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d91…a5fdbacked Spurs46c41,760$19,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,550.391637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4718…e2e8backed Knicks39c41,624$16,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,1101457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+126.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x005c…8cc2backed Knicks62c40,465$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Spurs47c40,000$18,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,20034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked Spurs61c39,712$24,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,372.062642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7aa1…e126backed Knicks54c39,500$21,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,3301369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Spurs46c39,500$18,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,215850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Knicks53c39,379$20,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,929.681,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Knicks55c39,087$21,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,337.1312529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20f4…15e1backed Knicks65c37,979$24,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,686.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Knicks53c37,563$20,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,055.446651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c77…4d42backed Knicks27c34,595$9,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,305.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+62.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Knicks33c34,464$11,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,300.2924937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Spurs48c34,297$16,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,843.3225925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Spurs76c33,512$25,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,073.615354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Knicks3c33,160$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.688439.3%33 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba62…b19bbacked Knicks54c32,981$17,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,8101741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Knicks33c32,278$10,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,583.289851%50 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9896…a925backed Knicks53c31,955$16,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,935.98650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+226.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Spurs47c31,915$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,914.8938143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Spurs61c31,828$19,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,544.721,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a35…0d46backed Spurs68c31,806$21,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,064.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b9…775dbacked Spurs57c31,771$18,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,640.51887.5%7 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.52per pick35cpaid+135.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Spurs47c31,276$14,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,576.282,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Spurs47c30,000$14,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,9004148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0075…5f10backed Knicks53c30,000$15,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,9001758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+59.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed Knicks54c29,181$15,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,757.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Knicks38c29,147$11,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,043.12429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+24.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Knicks38c28,444$10,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,779.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+99.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd026…ec2fbacked Spurs72c27,654$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,654.23560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+66.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ed…6febbacked Knicks56c27,328$15,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,171.72568%17 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+43.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Spurs62c25,064$15,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,521.2356646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.