TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,079 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Yes48c5,000$2,400 inLost-$2,399.9932653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed No52c2,829$1,471 inWon+$1,357.9471547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes48c2,083$1,000 inLost-$999.831,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed No52c1,897$987 inWon+$910.731,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No52c1,154$600 inWon+$553.821,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No51c1,111$567 inWon+$544.3710244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Yes48c1,000$480 inLost-$4807950.6%40 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No52c600$312 inWon+$28824949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3652…2c8bbacked No52c384.62$200 inWon+$184.621154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf158…5eeabacked Yes49c350$172 inLost-$171.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Yes49c309.19$150 inLost-$15014443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed No52c294.26$153 inWon+$141.6878445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5020…36fcbacked Yes49c272.14$133 inLost-$133.351233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked No52c230.77$120 inWon+$110.777153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Yes49c225.1$110 inLost-$11021950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked No52c200$104 inWon+$9629346.4%136 W · 157 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No51c199.97$102 inWon+$97.9856050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed No52c144.23$75 inWon+$69.239555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No52c115.38$60 inWon+$55.384261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Yes49c102.04$50 inLost-$502748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No52c91.54$47 inWon+$44.0633049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No52c80$42 inWon+$38.465630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0654…f5a9backed No52c67.31$35 inWon+$32.319451.1%48 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b3…08e3backed Yes49c61.22$30 inLost-$303652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No52c60.43$31 inWon+$29.0184443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85ee…79a9backed No52c57.69$30 inWon+$27.693351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf060…fc59backed Yes48c52.2$25 inLost-$2513539.3%53 W · 82 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No52c48.08$25 inWon+$23.0866046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba99…1685backed Yes49c40.47$20 inLost-$19.831233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b2…5805backed Yes48c40$19 inLost-$19.24647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…d26bbacked No54c36.88$20 inWon+$16.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes48c31.12$15 inLost-$1527539.6%109 W · 166 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No52c29.93$16 inWon+$14.2633556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x025a…2ffdbacked Yes49c25.61$13 inLost-$12.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No71c15.55$11 inWon+$4.5676054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.