TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Galions (BO1) - LFL Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitality.Beeof Vitality.Bee, Galions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$236,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$260,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Vitality.Bee21c37,883$8,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,816.421,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Galions76c19,398$14,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,827.8827353.1%145 W · 128 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked Galions79c17,810$14,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,069.6767056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Vitality.Bee55c15,009$8,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,757.9153355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Galions76c14,991$11,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,383.981,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed Vitality.Bee57c10,603$6,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,531.6318554.1%100 W · 85 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Vitality.Bee48c9,488$4,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,924.891,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Vitality.Bee36c6,092$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,911.932,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Vitality.Bee62c5,984$3,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,286.451,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Vitality.Bee21c4,824$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,810.0790537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Galions40c4,672$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86937245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Vitality.Bee25c4,018$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,013.92,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Galions80c3,945$3,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1563429.4%10 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Vitality.Bee48c3,642$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.9269539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Vitality.Bee19c3,549$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,875.4296048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0254…34b3backed Vitality.Bee78c2,861$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.244170.7%29 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e67…e2e6backed Galions80c2,499$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.152157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Vitality.Bee41c2,465$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.9811653.4%62 W · 54 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Galions42c2,366$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.443,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Vitality.Bee22c2,275$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.221,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa065…b825backed Vitality.Bee49c2,256$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.81944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Galions51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02061045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Vitality.Bee26c1,958$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.541,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Galions52c1,813$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.251,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Galions43c1,691$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.681,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Vitality.Bee46c1,656$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.663161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Vitality.Bee48c1,656$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.6333251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Galions80c1,578$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.44647.8%22 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Galions79c1,508$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.1912754.3%69 W · 58 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Galions29c1,431$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.4799338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Vitality.Bee20c1,428$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.417339.3%68 W · 105 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Vitality.Bee38c1,362$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.7856341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Vitality.Bee32c1,360$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.8273237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Vitality.Bee55c1,352$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.5132542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Vitality.Bee19c1,320$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.22,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3e…5d9dbacked Vitality.Bee25c1,251$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.3848042.3%203 W · 277 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Galions24c1,196$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.852,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Vitality.Bee24c1,193$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.6875942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf50d…7ba8backed Galions4c1,191$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.732817.9%5 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick5cpaid+67.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Vitality.Bee20c1,190$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95225433.5%85 W · 169 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Vitality.Bee21c1,183$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.951,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed Vitality.Bee27c1,118$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.2844042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x826c…cd27backed Vitality.Bee53c1,098$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.018245.1%37 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed Vitality.Bee28c1,091$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.3426443.6%115 W · 149 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a3…5901backed Galions4c1,044$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.376045%27 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Galions71c996$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.1667250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e6…b9f9backed Vitality.Bee20c971.04$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.8362743.9%275 W · 352 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Vitality.Bee28c950.95$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.0146637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Galions79c947.78$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.7451160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Vitality.Bee48c940.25$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.4333042.4%140 W · 190 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Vitality.Bee76c897.69$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.4648353.4%258 W · 225 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Galions61c875.39$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.3435346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Vitality.Bee42c816.22$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.7767931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f6c…620bbacked Vitality.Bee74c783.02$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.1832566.5%216 W · 109 L+26.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Vitality.Bee30c769.26$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.782044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Galions74c749.24$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.011,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Vitality.Bee53c736.85$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.278043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Vitality.Bee39c734.54$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.5876142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed Vitality.Bee27c720.2$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.735646.4%26 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Vitality.Bee62c686.84$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.8226164.4%168 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked Vitality.Bee47c615.37$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.5399747.1%470 W · 527 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed Vitality.Bee34c612.65$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.420756%116 W · 91 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Vitality.Bee79c574.05$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7557947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Vitality.Bee31c550.97$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.3323649.2%116 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce12…814fbacked Galions73c542.08$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.433268.8%22 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Galions53c536.61$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0250647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Galions15c515.77$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5345618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x788e…e086backed Vitality.Bee17c500$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4157945.6%36 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Vitality.Bee26c500$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed Vitality.Bee29c499.64$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.4511129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Vitality.Bee21c487.71$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.2995951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0833…bc88backed Vitality.Bee65c476.18$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.485757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Vitality.Bee20c476$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.860538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Vitality.Bee33c445.47$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.952,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed Galions62c439.65$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.1733857.1%193 W · 145 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Vitality.Bee25c409.35$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.2966947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Vitality.Bee25c397.16$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.7174250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Vitality.Bee75c394.97$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5123341.2%96 W · 137 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Vitality.Bee45c376.93$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.8120550.2%103 W · 102 L+15.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x38d0…5ea8backed Vitality.Bee45c365.31$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.3916048.1%77 W · 83 L+14.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Galions32c352.78$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8411111.7%13 W · 98 L-17.1wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-78.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Vitality.Bee52c348.08$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.084062.5%25 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Galions27c344.97$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0433124.2%80 W · 251 L-33.2wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Galions27c313$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1442124.7%104 W · 317 L-51.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked Vitality.Bee46c305.38$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.68248.8%40 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed Vitality.Bee76c300.9$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3236643.7%160 W · 206 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4497…d5afbacked Vitality.Bee20c300$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Vitality.Bee70c295.84$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6944129.5%130 W · 311 L-45.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-48%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked Galions34c292.21$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3825340.7%103 W · 150 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Galions44c290.27$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.411,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Vitality.Bee37c286.6$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.732,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb91…7db6backed Vitality.Bee34c282.47$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.4330348.8%148 W · 155 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9dd…31f9backed Vitality.Bee23c279.23$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Galions52c270.71$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.3835844.4%159 W · 199 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Vitality.Bee44c247.48$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.9636647.3%173 W · 193 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Galions61c247.26$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0926859.7%160 W · 108 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Vitality.Bee49c244.73$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.571,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed Vitality.Bee40c241$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.633040.3%133 W · 197 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7020…da18backed Vitality.Bee20c238$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.41216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Vitality.Bee46c233.86$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.5132650%163 W · 163 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.