TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Team Heretics, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$225,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,961 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9671…3a70backed Team Heretics0c66,666$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.782844.6%13 W · 271 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Team Heretics26c25,605$6,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,717.721,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf344…9a04backed Natus Vincere66c22,010$14,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,483.461747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Natus Vincere57c9,163$5,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,982.4643442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Team Heretics34c8,724$2,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.091,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5511…5734backed Team Heretics44c7,334$3,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,223.6224029.2%70 W · 170 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere56c4,929$2,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.961,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Natus Vincere61c4,824$2,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.7853355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Natus Vincere78c4,713$3,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.8759558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Heretics44c4,184$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.381,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed Team Heretics52c4,088$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,124.9533857.1%193 W · 145 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Heretics33c3,898$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.3370456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0041…7dccbacked Team Heretics22c3,434$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.62536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Natus Vincere66c2,985$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.7443442.4%184 W · 250 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Natus Vincere56c2,349$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.591,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Team Heretics33c2,319$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.2267931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Natus Vincere74c2,229$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.71,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Team Heretics34c2,222$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.482740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Natus Vincere66c2,140$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.5324041.3%99 W · 141 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Natus Vincere69c2,133$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.3821753.9%117 W · 100 L-0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Natus Vincere77c2,067$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.961,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Heretics42c1,855$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.671,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Team Heretics34c1,837$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.7113135.1%46 W · 85 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e91…69d7backed Team Heretics7c1,806$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.45450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Natus Vincere65c1,770$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.494864.6%31 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Natus Vincere68c1,758$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.632,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere55c1,615$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.2969539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Natus Vincere67c1,609$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.0691854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Heretics24c1,590$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.052,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed Team Heretics3c1,570$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0933040.3%133 W · 197 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ad…1b86backed Natus Vincere65c1,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.884450%22 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Team Heretics34c1,234$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.0699338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Heretics35c1,191$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.031,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Team Heretics42c1,157$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.5219640.3%79 W · 117 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb77…031bbacked Team Heretics14c1,056$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.86911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Team Heretics27c1,007$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.0586144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7202…e51abacked Team Heretics34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3402133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Heretics34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked Natus Vincere66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34052151.8%270 W · 251 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Natus Vincere66c949.92$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.976746.3%31 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58e3…c540backed Natus Vincere70c936.65$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.8915146.4%70 W · 81 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Natus Vincere50c935.01$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.1632542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Team Heretics32c920.88$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.681,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Natus Vincere66c900$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3061,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Heretics31c887.65$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.81,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere79c851.63$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.2976142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team Heretics31c809.99$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.12,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7097…e1debacked Team Heretics14c790.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.749450%47 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f0…f727backed Natus Vincere66c742.12$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Team Heretics34c731.73$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.795644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Team Heretics47c716.31$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9266845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Natus Vincere65c705.71$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2474139%16 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere55c704.15$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.9139246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Natus Vincere66c700$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2388743.7%38 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked Team Heretics15c632.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.917228.5%49 W · 123 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Team Heretics26c612.23$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9113545.9%62 W · 73 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Heretics35c596.34$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.181,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Team Heretics20c582.41$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.615735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Team Heretics32c580$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.41,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked Team Heretics34c568.25$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8417431%54 W · 120 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c41…bdf3backed Natus Vincere66c568$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Team Heretics34c564.94$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.0821559.5%128 W · 87 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe92e…4d90backed Team Heretics34c550$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1871421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-50.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa52e…453fbacked Natus Vincere66c531.36$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.662356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Heretics34c507.44$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.741,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2f7…4899backed Natus Vincere65c500.07$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.023850%19 W · 19 L-7.2wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Team Heretics34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1707851.3%40 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Natus Vincere70c491.9$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.0534960.7%212 W · 137 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…f1f3backed Natus Vincere66c489.8$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5324648.4%119 W · 127 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Team Heretics15c482.08$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7111111.7%13 W · 98 L-17.1wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-78.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd5eb…9120backed Natus Vincere66c479.8$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.131942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed Team Heretics35c465.87$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0524939%97 W · 152 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Heretics30c461.53$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.152,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68fe…469fbacked Natus Vincere66c445.27$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.39977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Natus Vincere69c429.08$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7323754%128 W · 109 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Heretics36c377.95$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.043,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Natus Vincere57c375.97$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.6724741.3%102 W · 145 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1144…b7b5backed Team Heretics8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306719.4%13 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Heretics35c368.49$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.82,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Heretics38c358.95$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.752,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95a9…4352backed Natus Vincere66c353.16$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.074562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828b…a13fbacked Natus Vincere57c339.35$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.4610450%52 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e71…eba7backed Natus Vincere56c325.13$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4712349.6%61 W · 62 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Team Heretics23c307.03$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6344129.5%130 W · 311 L-45.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-48%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8289…0bf5backed Team Heretics35c302.03$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.711741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Team Heretics32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9628655.9%160 W · 126 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Team Heretics41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12323932.6%78 W · 161 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Team Heretics14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4249541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Natus Vincere66c299.98$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.991,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd63…a39abacked Team Heretics44c298.33$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4922545.8%103 W · 122 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Natus Vincere66c293.88$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9226859.7%160 W · 108 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Natus Vincere68c288.47$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ca…b702backed Team Heretics6c264.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.115414.8%8 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a5…d074backed Team Heretics44c253.78$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6622932.3%74 W · 155 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a0d…caa3backed Natus Vincere63c246.94$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.96540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-41.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Natus Vincere67c245.05$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8796054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19c1…8e22backed Team Heretics9c244.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.761421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Team Heretics27c218.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6034945.6%159 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Natus Vincere68c209.16$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9218254.9%100 W · 82 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Team Heretics34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.