Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x127797fc05b7c857ff988d83354656e512c4f1e15727931d60c6f592cfbc4fff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Team Heretics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Team Heretics | 64c | 26,862$17,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,266.06 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Team Heretics | 63c | 20,000$12,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,599.98 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 14,447$5,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,908.52 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 5,894$2,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,711.78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Team Heretics | 59c | 5,583$3,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,297.32 | 372 | 45.2%168 W · 204 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9560…9467backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 204 | 54.9%112 W · 92 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Team Heretics | 65c | 4,950$3,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240.93 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 4,563$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.61 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 4,491$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,919.06 | 525 | 38.9%204 W · 321 L | +18.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2305…0acebacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 4,021$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,533.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 2,557$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.93 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 2,240$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.22 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 2,159$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.54 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6139backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,200$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 353 | 46.7%165 W · 188 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,091$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.07 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,009$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.88 | 178 | 40.4%72 W · 106 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 961.6$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.42 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 921.79$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.73 | 300 | 35%105 W · 195 L | -21.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 916.74$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.06 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Team Heretics | 63c | 800$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 777$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.28 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 758$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.12 | 313 | 37.7%118 W · 195 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 627.71$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.74 | 564 | 32.1%181 W · 383 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…3be7backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 569.62$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.56 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Team Heretics | 65c | 532.29$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.66 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 494.05$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.37 | 566 | 50%283 W · 283 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…0558backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 494.05$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.37 | 182 | 36.8%67 W · 115 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c6c1backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 379.94$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 365.18$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.37 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 322.33$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.28 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 287.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.41 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1019…d7cabacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 263.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.03 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…7d57backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 232.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.63 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 210.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…669ebacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 199.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 180$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…39a6backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 156.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…8db8backed Team Heretics | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…370cbacked Team Heretics | 66c | 148.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 474 | 34.8%165 W · 309 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…b2f5backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 128.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 169 | 50.3%85 W · 84 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…6e31backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…c8ecbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 115.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 114.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 111.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…a838backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 109.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 101.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Team Heretics | 65c | 95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 415 | 44.6%185 W · 230 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 86.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Team Heretics | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa770…24a6backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 57.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Team Heretics | 63c | 41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 37.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 376 | 41.8%157 W · 219 L | -18.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86a…644dbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 36.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Team Heretics | 64c | 35.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…bef0backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 34.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 858 | 36.2%311 W · 547 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…7662backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 34.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Team Heretics | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 166 | 54.2%90 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c64…929abacked Team Heretics | 55c | 29.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 166 | 68.7%114 W · 52 L | +22.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed Team Heretics | 62c | 27.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 394 | 45.2%178 W · 216 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 27.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 458 | 41.5%190 W · 268 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Team Heretics | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 143 | 60.8%87 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.