TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: SuYoung You vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Elijah Smithof SuYoung You, Elijah Smith
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$541,504

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $541,504 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 286 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked SuYoung You30c132,300$39,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,622.7535253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Elijah Smith70c83,813$58,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,448.4410949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed SuYoung You30c76,592$22,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,821.5919154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Elijah Smith70c75,000$52,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,500.027245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked SuYoung You30c29,620$8,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,8869636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Elijah Smith70c21,300$14,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,389.9711554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Elijah Smith70c20,040$14,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,01214558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7a…8536backed SuYoung You36c16,378$5,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,930.581030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Elijah Smith71c15,258$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,458.28360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed SuYoung You29c11,087$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.23964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Elijah Smith71c10,563$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,063.385151%26 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Elijah Smith70c10,514$7,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,15429151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed SuYoung You30c10,500$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1506738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed SuYoung You32c10,000$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2507452.7%39 W · 35 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed SuYoung You30c8,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40012052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Elijah Smith70c7,024$4,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,107.1619544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed SuYoung You29c6,971$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,034.5729133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Elijah Smith71c6,957$4,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.058754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Elijah Smith70c6,710$4,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,026.318848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked SuYoung You30c6,431$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.930039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba3…5367backed Elijah Smith71c6,031$4,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Elijah Smith68c5,493$3,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.871566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Elijah Smith70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5005050%25 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed SuYoung You28c4,906$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.0620954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked SuYoung You18c4,687$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.4215939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee7…6760backed SuYoung You30c4,203$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.247343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dc5…c988backed Elijah Smith71c4,154$2,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.66475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Elijah Smith67c4,109$2,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.2627448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3673…1d20backed Elijah Smith71c3,508$2,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Elijah Smith68c3,411$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.1435648.6%173 W · 183 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1372…971cbacked Elijah Smith70c3,148$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Elijah Smith70c3,035$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.9826743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed SuYoung You30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed SuYoung You29c2,938$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.022352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked SuYoung You27c2,932$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.366048.3%29 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x518a…47cbbacked Elijah Smith70c2,837$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39bd…3d72backed Elijah Smith70c2,715$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Elijah Smith80c2,608$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.1416746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Elijah Smith69c2,577$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.9637152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Elijah Smith70c2,500$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75514929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7342…1db7backed Elijah Smith71c2,461$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed SuYoung You29c2,435$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.2420933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa850…f1babacked SuYoung You30c2,127$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Elijah Smith71c2,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Elijah Smith64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7201580%12 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed SuYoung You29c1,975$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.718434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Elijah Smith70c1,966$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.538840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed SuYoung You31c1,944$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60018647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f22…6482backed Elijah Smith69c1,806$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.249756.7%55 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed SuYoung You33c1,773$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.7615641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed SuYoung You30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4508650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Elijah Smith71c1,500$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4356142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed SuYoung You30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Elijah Smith76c1,500$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.5253956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2d…6443backed SuYoung You30c1,486$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.884035%14 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe96a…b2dbbacked Elijah Smith71c1,478$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x616a…5046backed Elijah Smith71c1,422$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed SuYoung You32c1,385$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4406063.3%38 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed SuYoung You29c1,380$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.24344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed SuYoung You34c1,364$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.767862.8%49 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed SuYoung You31c1,350$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.4421247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aab…9ae0backed SuYoung You31c1,291$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005752.6%30 W · 27 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed SuYoung You30c1,200$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36020837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed SuYoung You29c1,183$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.1911558.3%67 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Elijah Smith70c1,159$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.867251.4%37 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed SuYoung You31c1,086$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.273941%16 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed SuYoung You30c1,016$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.75349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed SuYoung You31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3108655.8%48 W · 38 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked SuYoung You30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea1…f17ebacked SuYoung You1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Elijah Smith70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30035564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b61…599cbacked SuYoung You37c949.38$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-37.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d31…0286backed Elijah Smith71c932.39$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.39580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed SuYoung You35c886.26$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.9916745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked SuYoung You31c700$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4240…279ebacked Elijah Smith70c695.26$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.58666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…d234backed Elijah Smith70c675$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7358…1d32backed Elijah Smith77c649.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.357647.4%36 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Elijah Smith64c630$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.86240.3%25 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked SuYoung You30c596.67$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17926140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Elijah Smith61c577.38$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.8613453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Elijah Smith70c561.46$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.351353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Elijah Smith71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14522661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Elijah Smith70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1508461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Elijah Smith71c491.51$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5415556.8%88 W · 67 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Elijah Smith71c482.61$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1222438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Elijah Smith75c462.51$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6337754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7762…309ebacked SuYoung You29c450$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.52552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Elijah Smith71c447.9$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.154250%21 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c93…f0f6backed Elijah Smith70c438.62$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.591464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Elijah Smith70c432.99$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3916156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked SuYoung You30c423$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.99228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed SuYoung You33c418.4$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6314530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Elijah Smith75c417$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.595642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed SuYoung You29c410.63$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0114551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Elijah Smith72c405.92$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.720139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x941f…bac9backed Elijah Smith50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Elijah Smith71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11610843.5%47 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Elijah Smith69c400$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12552052.9%275 W · 245 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed SuYoung You30c394$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.817528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.